Pep knows a thing or two about derbies
HE’D no doubt scoff at the suggestion he is stooping to derby-day mind games but Pep Guardiola was not reared on a diet of El Clasico hostilities without learning a thing or two.
Last week, when pressure was mounting on Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, Guardiola stated matter of factly that the United boss cannot ‘survive bad results’ any more so than any other manager.
On Tuesday, ahead of City’s latest Champions League engagement, Guardiola ranked this week’s matches versus Club Brugge and United in order of importance.
“It’s much more important this game than the United game,” he told a pre-match news conference.
“This game gives us an incredible step forward to qualify for the Champions League last 16. In the Premier League, there are many, many games, here just six – now just three left.”
It is easy to attach ideas of mischief to matter-of-fact statements in derby week, and maybe Guardiola is simply talking bluntly here – even if his remarks prompted a slew of social media reaction from Blues fans, falling largely into two camps.
Some, understandably, delighted at the notion of the Belgian Pro League side being considered a bigger fish than those on the other side of town, while others bemoaned Pep’s ropey recent record against United and felt he should be more concerned about setting that right.
Of course, the old maxim of ‘take each game as it comes’ probably comes into play here. Don’t be surprised if, come Friday, Guardiola declares the 186th Manchester derby to be the most important match of his life or some such.
On the face of it, there is no arguing with Pep’s maths. There are 28 games remaining in the Premier League season, with United simply the first opportunity to consign Saturday’s 2-0 defeat against Crystal Palace to footnote status.
But City have dropped points in four of their opening 10 Premier League games. Liverpool have done too, in fairness, although the quality of Jurgen Klopp’s side and leaders Chelsea suggest there is not such a great margin for error remaining.
Nor does recent history. In City’s back-to-back title wins under Guardiola in 2017/18 and 2018/19, they won a staggering 32 matches in each season.
So did Liverpool in 2019/20, having won 30 and lost only once in finishing runners-up to City the year before.
City slipped back to 27 victories last term, although the vagaries of pandemic football, a title race lacking any real jeopardy from around February, rotation and a chunk of dead rubbers all contributed to this.
Before Guardiola’s run of three Premier League titles in four years began, Antonio Conte’s Chelsea won 30 of 38 to storm to glory in 2016/17.
There remains a possibility that the big three will tear lumps out of each other – City having come out of the jousts with their title rivals in the best shape at the end of September – while the arrival of Conte at Spurs, a resurgent Arsenal and surprise packages such as Brighton and West Ham are all factors that might mean a points total in the mid-80s will suffice this season. But all of the Premier League’s most recent title winners suggest that City have burned through a dangerously high number of the slip-ups they are allowed in the top-flight this season.
The Blues’ mixed start to their Premier League title defence means it is tough to envisage such a positive spin if Saturday’s game at Old Trafford finishes all square.
It is too early to label anything a must-win game but, irrespective of any bragging rights, it seems perfectly clear which is City’s most important match this week. Hopefully, Guardiola is just being mischievous.