Crystal ball…
About to embark on his 40th season covering Grand Prix racing, Michael Scott asks and answers the biggest questions in MotoGP 2023
1 Can Marquez win again?
Time waits for no man; but genius will not be denied. The big question is whether Marc, 30 this year, can find the motivation to resist the same tide of youth that eventually did for Rossi. My guess is ‘yes’. Part two: Will the heavily revised Honda be good enough to make it possible? See question three…
2 Will Joan Mir be the teammate to challenge the master?
Dominant in Moto3, impressive in Moto2, champion in MotoGP. That was in 2020, the year Marquez crashed. But Mir won only one race that year, and none since – outshone by Suzuki teammate Alex Rins. Repsol Honda team guru Alberto Puig chose Mir over Rins for the factory team, though, betting on his consistency. Quick to adapt from inline four to V4 in tests, he still has plenty to prove.
3 Can Honda reverse the slump?
It’s been steadily downhill for HRC since Marc’s crash in 2020. No matter what they did, only Marc (during his fitful returns) could make the bike work, while other riders endured one front-end crash after another.
New staff, including ex-Suzuki guru Ken Kawauchi; new evolution, including catch-up ground-effect aero, and increasing desperation are now applied to a bike that stopped winning regularly when Marc got hurt. There’s no doubt that HRC will be stronger this year than last. Trouble is, the rivals have had three years of their own continuous improvement.
4 Will sprint races upset the championship/ bring back the crowds?
Yes to the former, maybe to the latter. A half-length half-points sprint on Saturday afternoon definitely adds to the show, but the format favours
risk-takers over tactical tyrepreservers. This could mean different winners, spicing the mix… but injuries might intervene. As for whether more fans might turn up, it was the lack of Rossi that kept (for example) Italians away last year, rather than a lack of interest in qualifying.
5 Are 21 rounds too many?
Formula 1 has 23 on the schedule this season, plus six Saturday sprint races for a total of 29 starts. MotoGP actually has 42 races. Some riders (usually the older ones) think that last year’s 20 were already too many, in terms of physical stress and travel fatigue. Others (step forward Jack Miller for one) would be happy to have even more starts.
6 Have Yamaha got their sums right this time?
The biggest anomaly of 2022 was how well Quartararo went on a sub-standard bike. The other three riders, including the redoubtable Morbidelli, found it disastrous. Now the disillusioned Malaysian-backed satellite team has fled to Aprilia. Some of the missing speed has been restored. Will it be enough to give Fabio the margin he needs?
7 Do Ducati have too many fast riders?
Oh yes. Most certainly. Bagnaia’s home-town headache comes in the shape of new teammate Bastianini, who beat him four times last year, when he was apparently supporting his rival’s title bid. Superfast Pramac rider Jorge Martin missed the factory ride, and is burning to prove it was a mistake. Not to mention rising star Luca Marini, precocious teammate Bezzecchi, and veteran double Moto2 champion Johann Zarco – long overdue a race win. Rivals will delight in watching them taking chunks (and points) out of one another.
8 Will it be the Bagnaia and Quartararo show again?
They line up this year as joint favourites and fine adversaries. Bagnaia had a flawed start to 2022, but found strength and focus in the latter half of the year. Call it maturity. Quartararo showed resolve throughout, seldom faltering in spite of having to over-ride an outclassed Yamaha M1. Want to find out more? Wait and see…
9 Should Suzuki come back?
Well of course they should. They shouldn’t have left in the first place. With the least resources they had developed a bike of such balanced elegance that it could win races even without challenging on horsepower and money. Backing away looks like a bad boardroom mistake.
10 Is it Brad Binder’s time to shine?
Sunday rider personified, Brad Binder has the same ability as Marquez and Quartararo to impose willpower over technical weakness. In this way he has won two unlikely races for KTM, was sixth last year – one point behind Jack Miller, and reliably far exceeded qualifying positions on race day (18th to eighth at Le Mans). The KTM is clearly not an easy bike. If they’ve changed that for 2023, just watch him go. And if they haven’t, ditto.
11 Will Jack Miller teach KTM some Ducati tricks?
The Australian rider brings something more than just race-winning experience to the junior of the factory teams… he can boast five years steeped in Ducati know-how. Jack cultivates a gung-ho manner, so nobody expects a technical mastermind. But strong results on different machines suggest he might be playing a clever game of bluff. If so, he could have some important lessons for the Austrian factory. If not, he stands to be disappointed by his new bike.
12 Will MotoGP climb onto the GenZ market?
Netflix documentaries have recruited huge numbers of new young fans first to F1 with Drive to Survive, and have added tennis and golf to the portfolio. By contrast, Amazon’s MotoGP Unlimited was a lame doc, sinking almost without trace. Clumsy quick-cut editing didn’t work with the subtitles that were rushed in to replace the initial laughable dubbing. Will a second attempt do better at exploiting the drama of the most human of all motorsports?
13 Have Aprilia grown up enough yet?
Aleix Espargaro, 34 in July, is now the oldest rider, after Dovi’s departure. Has he grown up too much? Will Viñales settle to be his best self? And will Oliveira (KTM’s biggest winner and seriously under-rated) beat them both? The former underdogs took a great leap forward last year, but silly mistakes spoiled the end result. One year later, things need to be different.
‘Time waits for no man; but genius will not be denied’