THIRD WAVE IN RETREAT
WE MAY BE PAST PEAK, SAYS HEALTH DATA EXPERT AS CASES AND HOSPITALISATIONS CONTINUE TO FALL
COVID case numbers have plunged again – raising hopes the third wave of infections is retreating with the deaths rate predicted to follow.
Ministers feared new cases could rise to 100,000 a day after social distancing ended on July 19 – Freedom Day – but yesterday they fell to 21,691.
And as the Office for National Statistics figures yesterday showed 327 people died that week – far below the 8,433 recorded at the height of January’s second wave – its former head of health data Jamie Jenkins said: ‘I think we might start being over the hill now when it comes to deaths. If you look at the same number of cases to winter, it would have been 800 deaths (daily) rather than
65 to 70.’ He told LBC that Britain’s vaccine rollout had kept hospitalisations 80 per cent lower and death rates 90 per lower than previous waves.
Prof Paul Hunter, University of East Anglia infectious disease expert, was also optimistic, insisting: ‘We can see new admissions to hospital have peaked in England. It’s further evidence the decline in cases in the last couple of weeks was real and not due to changing testing or people deleting the NHS Covid app as some have suggested.’
He said the drop in cases coincided with a drop in testing but the proportion testing positive was lower too.
Yesterday’s fall in cases seemed to surprise ministers, who insisted they would not bring forward plans for double-jabbed people to avoid selfisolating if pinged by the NHS app from August 16. Skills minister Gillian Keegan hailed ‘very, very promising’ figures but warned: ‘I guess we all look at the data with hope but we’ve seen how this virus can turn at several points.
‘We’ve got this August 16 date to say everybody get vaccinated and that gives young people the chance to get double-vaccinated as well.’
The proportion of adults with both jabs rose to 73 per cent yesterday – as a new study suggested it halved the risk of infection compared with having none.
Imperial College said data from its ongoing React survey of 98,000 people showed those with two jabs had just a 3.8 per cent chance of getting Covid from close contact with someone infected.
As the government decides which countries go on the green list of unrestricted holiday destinations tomorrow, ministers have been accused of underestimating the British public.
Sage adviser Prof Stephen Reicher, of the University of St Andrews, said: ‘The remarkable thing when you look at the data is people have always been ahead of the government in being aware of the dangers and being cautious. The public have always been behaving responsibly.’
Yesterday, 138 people died with Covid – up from 131 a week earlier – but those in hospital dropped nearly a quarter in a week, with 645 on Sunday compared with 836 seven days earlier.
Last night, there were reports that the government’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation is to recommend 16- and 17-year-olds should now have the vaccine, with a rollout beginning as soon as this weekend.