Betting on politics

It’s a good time to run through the top political betting markets, which are unsurprisingly dominated by the outcomes of the upcoming US and UK elections.

As you might expect, the overall winner of the US presidential election is the top market, with £7.46m matched on Betfair, and another £2.08m matched on Smarkets. In this case, Donald Trump is favourite to win at 2.38 (42%).

In second place, with £4.9m matched on Betfair, is the identity of the Democratic nominee, with president Joe Biden favourite to get his party’s nod at 1.39 (71.9%).

The contest for the Republican nominee is third, with £4.05m matched on Betfair. In this case punters put Donald Trump even more strongly in pole position at 1.17 (85.4%).

In fourth place is the party that will get the most seats in the next UK general election. With £2.09m matched on Betfair, Labour is favourite at 1.14 (87.7%).

Fifth is the betting on an overall majority, with £1.7m matched on Betfair. In this case, a Labour majority is favourite at 1.31 (70.3%). Ignoring the markets on whether an election will take place before 2024 and whether Boris Johnson will lead the Conservative Party at the next election, which are effectively dead, the sixth-largest market is on the party of the winning US presidential candidate, with £282,761 matched.

The market on the next UK prime minister after Rishi Sunak is in seventh place, with £177,969 matched, while the individual winner of the popular vote in the US presidential election is in eighth spot, with £157,382 matched.

Finally, the party of the candidate who wins the US popular vote and the exact nominees of both major US parties are ninth and tenth, with £142,669 and £118,531 matched, respectively.