Betting on politics

US president Joe Biden’s State of the Union speech (see story, left), and the fact that he has now won a majority of delegates, has caused his odds to shorten over the last few days. With £7.2m matched on Betfair, he is at 1.17 (85.4%) to get the Democratic nomination, with former first lady Michelle Obama in second place at 24 (4.2%). In a similar way, the odds have also shortened to 2.86 (34.9) on Biden winning re-election in November, though his Republican challenger, Donald Trump, is still the favourite to emerge victorious at 2.1 (47.6%).

Meanwhile, the betting on who Trump’s running mate will be remains relatively wide open. With £376,153 matched, South Dakota governor Kristi Noem is current favourite, though her odds are still at a relatively long 5.3 (18.9%). Senator

Tim Scott of South Carolina is in second place with 5.9 (16.9%); Congresswoman Elise Stefanik is in third position,with odds at 13 (7.7%).

Trying to guess who Trump will pick as his running mate is difficult – there is a large pool of potential candidates and he is notoriously capricious. Until recently, Nikki Haley would have been the obvious choice as she served in Trump’s previous administration, but relations between her and Trump collapsed following the recent primary battles and Haley is currently refusing to endorse his candidacy as president.

I still think that there is some value in betting on Haley at 16 (6.3%), though don’t bet any more on her if you’ve already taken my previous advice. For the other candidates, I would wait until things become a little clearer before putting your money down. On the Democratic side, I’d take 1.20 (83.3%) on Biden sticking with vice-president Kamala Harris.