Betting on politics

With Labour regularly enjoying leads of over 20% in the polls, it’s not surprising that the betting markets are predicting Labour will win the most seats at the next election. With £3.2m matched on Betfair, Labour is at 1.13 (88.4%) to be at least the largest party in Parliament; the Tories are out at 9.6 (10.4%). The odds on an outright Labour majority are a bit longer, at 1.19 (84%), but not by much.

I can’t realistically think of a scenario where Labour doesn’t win both most seats and a majority. But what about the chances of a Conservative wipeout greater than 1997, when they won only 165 seats? With £13,909 matched, Betfair thinks that the most likely outcome is 100-149 seats, with odds of 2.8 (35.7%), followed by 50-99 with odds of four (25%), 0-49 with odds of 7.2 (13.8%) and 150-199 with odds of five (20%).

The collapse of the Progressive Conservatives in the Canadian election in 1993, when the government went from a majority to losing all but two of its ridings, shows it is possible for an incumbent party to be all but obliterated. Indeed, one recent projection by the website Electoral Calculus estimates that the Conservatives will get as few as 113 seats (though other estimates have them much higher), and that is before the possible re-entry of Nigel Farage into the fray, which could siphon off even more votes from the Conservatives.

Still, I just can’t see the Conservatives being reduced to double figures. Falling inflation and interest-rate cuts will invariably push some voters back into the Conservative column, while the start of flights to Rwanda will blunt the threat from Reform.

I’d therefore bet against the Conservatives getting 50 to 99 seats at 4.7, which is equivalent to betting on them not getting 50 to 99 seats at 1.27 (78.7%).