Betting on politics

In a few weeks’ time voters in large parts of England will go to the polls. But in contrast to recent years, when there have been a large number of electionrelated markets, including on the control of individual councils, there has been relatively little interest from betting markets or bookmakers, possibly because everyone is assuming the Conservatives will lose many councillors, or because all the interest is in the upcoming general election, which will have to take place in just over nine months’ time.

One race with a liquid market is the contest over who will be mayor of London. However, even there punters are all but assuming that Sadiq Khan will win. With £200,792 matched on Betfair, Khan is favourite at 1.05 (95.2%), with Conservative Susan Hall out at 21 (4.7%). Reform’s candidate Howard Cox is out at 410 (0.24%). The best odds from the bookmakers are 1/13 (92.8%) on Khan from Betway and 12/1 (7.6%) on Hall.

The markets are surely correct to have Khan as the near-certain winner, but I have tipped him previously. Instead, turn your attention to the betting on who will be mayor of the Tees Valley. With £801 matched on Smarkets, the Labour candidate Chris McEwan is favourite at 1.34 (74.6%), with the incumbent Tory mayor Ben Houchen out at 2.46 (40.6%).

In 2017 Houchen beat the odds by scraping a victory in a traditional Labour stronghold. Four years later, he won a landslide victory with 73% of the vote. However, with the Conservative Party imploding, “red wall” voters returning to Labour, and “levelling up” a distant dream, recent polls give McEwan a large lead of 45% to 19%, albeit with a large number of voters undecided. I would therefore suggest betting on McEwan to emerge victorious.