Erdogan’s magic wears off
Turkey’s opposition has dealt a major blow to president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, says CNN. Erdogan’s AKP party lost in key cities to the CHP party at local elections last weekend.
The AKP lost the national popular vote for the first time since 2002, ceding control of regions that were once party strongholds. A second successive defeat in Istanbul, “a strategic and personal crown jewel” for the president, who was mayor of the city in the 1990s, was stinging.
Ahead of last year’s presidential election, Erdogan loosened the purse strings to bring voters onside, says Ben Hubbard in The New York Times. But since then, he has pivoted towards austerity, allowing the central bank to hike interest rates to 50% to tackle inflation that hit 68.5% in March. The cost-of-living crisis has disillusioned some of the AKP’s traditional supporters, with lower turnout suggesting many opted to stay at home.
Erdogan has sought to “expand the role of Islam in public life” and “build Turkey’s status as an economic and military player”, often exasperating Nato allies in the process. Critics accuse him “of pushing the country toward one-man rule”. Sunday’s victories will help “reinvigorate opposition voters” and give opposition parties a platform from which to prepare a national challenge in the 2028 presidential election.
While the elections were local, Erdogan’s energetic campaigning meant some voters regarded them as “a personal referendum”, says Marc Pierini for Carnegie Europe. The president has stayed popular in previous periods of economic trouble, but this vote shows even the “Erdogan magic” has limits.
Still, “personal vexation” aside, the AKP’s power remains unaffected at the national level. The West still faces the same Erdogan as before – a man “acutely aware of his country’s geopolitical value” and “intent on remaining at equal distance from Nato and Russia”.