Xi and Putin cosy up
The West must reckon with a new world order. Matthew Partridge reports
China and Russia “doubled down” on their strengthening alliance at a meeting this week between Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, say Austin Ramzy and Ann Simmons in The Wall Street Journal. They pledged their “shared opposition” to what they describe as the US’s attempts to “dominate the world”. The meeting took place despite US warnings that China “should step back from helping the Russians pursue the war” on Ukraine, and that Chinese firms that aid Russia’s military procurement “will face significant consequences”.
Mutual satisfaction
The apparent “warmth” between the two countries would seem to “quell any lingering doubts” about Chinese support for Russia, says Richard Lloyd Parry in The Times. China’s initial reaction to the invasion of Ukraine was mixed, possibly because its leaders were annoyed by the lack of notice from Moscow and the fact that Beijing had been using “the inviolability of domestic sovereignty” as a pretext for deflecting criticism of its domestic repression. Such qualms have now “clearly been soothed” for China by the fact that the war “distracts the Nato countries” and leaves Putin in a “position of needy supplication”.
Indeed, since the war started Russia has become dependent on China not only as an importer, but also as the main customer for its exports, says the Financial Times. China now buys about 40% of Russia’s crude oil and most of its coal, and is one of the top three buyers of Russian oil products, pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas. Combined with imports from third countries and direct military supplies from North Korea and Iran, this support has allowed Russia to sustain its economy and defence industry despite Western sanctions and trade embargoes.
Axis of evil
The alliance of Russia and China is also starting to embrace Iran, says The Economist. Moscow and Tehran have both signed longterm partnerships with Beijing in the past few years, and all three countries are members of the same multilateral clubs, such as the Brics. Plans are also being drawn up for “tariff-free blocs, new payment systems and trade routes that bypass Western-controlled places”. Such an alliance could end up being the “stuff of nightmares” for the US and its allies – a “thriving anti-Western axis could dodge sanctions, win wars and recruit other malign actors”.
There’s still a chance that the Sino-Russian alliance could flounder, especially as “China grows more confident and is tempted to start bossing around the Russians in a more heavy-handed way”, says Alexander Gabuev in Foreign Affairs. But Beijing and Moscow have demonstrated a “remarkable ability to manage their differences”. Their armies have already carried out joint exercises in Asia in order to deepen their ability to work together. The West would be wise to drop hopes that it can “drive a wedge” between Beijing and Moscow and instead start to develop a long-term strategy that recognises the need to “compete with China and Russia simultaneously”. Western policymakers “must now reckon with the reality of an increasingly resolute Sino-Russian axis”.