Betting on politics

On the eve of Donald Trump’s first criminal trial, punters finally seem to be getting cold feet about the former president’s chances of re-entering the White House. With £14.1m matched on Betfair, Trump is now barely the favourite at 2.34 (43.1%), with Joe Biden at 2.38 (42%). Indeed, with £2.5m matched on Betfair’s rival Smarkets, crossover has actually taken place, with Biden now the favourite at 2.24 (44.6%), compared with 2.32 (43.1%) for Trump.

The fact that the implied chances of Biden and Trump winning are both below 50% suggests that punters still think there is a small chance that someone else could win. Interestingly, when you look at the odds on the party of the winning presidential candidate (or to be technical, the party with the most Electoral College votes), the Democrats are now actually slight favourites. With £372,012 matched on Betfair, the Democrats are at 2 (50%) with the Republicans at 2.1 (47.6%), with any other at 28 (3.8%).

I’d put the chances of a Democrat victory at around 60%-65%. While Trump leads in the key states, a conviction in even one of his cases could prove to be the decisive moment when people finally turn away from him. Indeed, even the best-case scenario of a hung jury would simply mean that the whole process was repeated, tying him down when he could be campaigning.

A combination of old age and the strain of defending several cases finally seems to be getting to Trump in a way that even his supporters can’t overlook. By contrast, Biden and his team seem to be learning from their mistakes, as shown by Biden’s tougher rhetoric on immigration. Republican stubbornness on Ukraine and an improving economy are also tailwinds for Democrats. I‘d therefore take the bet on a Democratic victory.