What the big three have to do to win
With third-placed Ott Tanak 23 points off the lead, his championship hopes are easiest to deal with.
The best scenario for the Estonian (win and powerstage win) would mean he ends the year on 211 points. That result allied to Ogier finishing seventh or lower and Neuville is fifth or worse with no powerstage points for either, would make the title Tanak’s.
Let’s focus on the top two. The one concrete connotation is that if Ogier wins the rally, he’s champion. He would achieve 229 for the win and Neuville’s best bet would be second place and a powerstage win, which would leave him five points short of the Frenchman.
If Neuville leads the event into the powerstage, Ogier would need to outscore him in the bonus stage by four points to take the title to a dead-heat.
In that case, with both drivers tied on points, then the crown would be handed to the driver scoring the most wins. But if Neuville wins, that would leave them with four victories each. The next step is to count the most second places. Currently, they’ve both got two… so if Neuville wins and Ogier’s second and they’re tied on points, Ogier is champion because he’s been runnerup three times.
Fundamentally, if all three crews retire, Ogier’s champion. If Neuville wants to take the title, he needs four points more than Ogier; if Tanak wants the title, he needs 24 more than Ogier (and a no-score for Thierry).
Between all of the above, there’s a frightening number of different calculations and permutations.
It’s probably easiest to point out that it’s very, very close. In fact, it hasn’t been this close going into the final round since 2003.