Don’t believe all that is on election leaflets

I DELIVERED my 10,000th leaflet across the new Reading West and Mid Berkshire constituency last weekend.

From doing this it’s already clear that voters must take great care with what the parties are saying.

Whether it’s Labour delivering leaflets saying how they are the only ones that can win, even though their base out of Reading is just 30 per cent of the new constituency, or the Lib Dems doing the opposite based on local election results in Mid Berkshire.

Voters need to treat the content in a leaflet or canvassing on the door with care.

The Labour leaflet even mentioned that all polling shows it’s neck and neck between them and the Conservatives.

But based on what polling? They don’t say.

What do I base this statement on? I have had nigh on 400 conversations with voters as I have been delivering.

So that’s my polling so far.

The almost universal message is one of not knowing which way to vote and being depressed with the state of politics.

Many people simply saying they are not going to vote because “it makes no difference; all politicians are the same”.

Not one person said they were voting Labour, or Lib Dem or Green for that matter.

It’s way too early for most people to have decided.

So, how can we trust parties that start campaigning by twisting things?

As a demonstration, I’ll use the same techniques used by parties to show how an independent has just as good a chance, if not better, of being elected in the new constituency.

Let’s start with the most recent byelection result from Rochdale. Independents polled 24.5 per cent of the vote and the largest independent got 21 per cent.

Now let’s look at Politico and the poll of polls as of April 3.

It says Labour 44 per cent, Conservative 23 per cent, Reform 13 per cent, Lib Dems 10 per cent and Greens five per cent.

So, 44 per cent of the stronger area for Labour (Reading West) means just 44 per cent of 30 per cent, ie just 13.2 per cent of the total vote.

For the Conservatives 23 per cent of the remaining 70 per cent is just 16.1 per cent, but that’s an absolute max as it ignores everyone else’s vote. Reform gets just 9.1 per cent, Lib Dems just 7.77 per cent and Greens just 3.5 per cent.

So, any independent getting 21 per cent of the vote easily wins.

Anyone who thinks about the statement above will see the flaws in it.

There are many, but as with the Labour leaflet it is presenting things in a way that suits the narrative of the presenter.

We all know that the polls are often wrong.

The polls for Brexit said it would not happen.

No poll was indicating that an independent would do so well in Rochdale.

So why should anyone believe what is so obviously a twist of reality?

All I will say is “please vote”.

If you really don’t know who to vote for, then why not a local businessman who’s independent?

Let’s not give up on democracy, but use your vote to bring it back to Parliament.

The turn out for the 2019 general election was 67.3 per cent – so 32.7 per cent did not vote.

That’s more than enough to return anyone voters choose.

The average turnout since the 2001 election (including the Brexit referendum) is even less at 65.7 per cent.

Without Brexit it’s just 64.6 per cent. So reality is that anyone can win – including the Conservatives. ADRIAN ABBS

Independent prospective Parliamentary candidate for Reading West and Mid Berkshire Independent councillor for Newbury Wash Common ward West Berkshire Council