Vaccinating at-risk Covid groups could take ‘three to four months’
PATIENCE IS NEEDED FOR UK ROLL-OUT, SAYS PROFESSOR
A UNIVERSITY professor has spoken out about how long the coronavirus vaccine could take to roll out.
Nottingham Trent University sociology professor Robert Dingwall said he estimates it would take up to four months to roll out the vaccine to those with health conditions and the over-50s.
After that, he said we’re looking at the end of summer 2021 “at the earliest” for the others to be vaccinated in lower-risk groups.
Professor Dingwall said if and when a vaccine is approved by the MHRA (Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency), which will decide whether it is safe, it will then be passed on to the JVCI (Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation), which will decide on how delivery should happen.
Following that, it will be down to the NHS to deliver it. In light of this, and dismissing any possibility of vaccinations this month, he said: “These three components need to come into place.
“A few people might get a symbolic vaccine but I don’t think mass vaccination will be until January.
“If all goes well, my best guess is that it’ll take three to four months to work through the list of higher-risk groups to the over-50s.”
He said it was unlikely children would get the vaccine “at this point” as they were unlikely to get seriously ill from Covid-19.
When asked how long it could take to vaccinate more than 60 million people across the country, he said: “There’s an assumption that everyone will get this vaccine and there shouldn’t be.
“Politicians may decide to do that but the scientific justification might not be so secure. There’s a creeping assumption that everyone will be offered this and maybe we shouldn’t assume that.”
He said if people are “demanding it”, it may be decided that the vaccine will be extended to everyone who wants it.
He said by Easter, it is hoped that logistics will be running smoothly.
In terms of a timescale for vaccinations to be completed, he said: “The first phase is going to cover around 30% of the population, so you might be looking at another six months or so, probably the autumn, or the end of summer at the earliest.”
Speaking of the current limits the population is living under, Professor Dingwall said there will “be pressure to continue restrictions for as long as possible”.
He said: “When a significant portion of the population is vaccinated, the justifications for restrictions will be weaker. You won’t get 100% of people vaccinated as some people can’t be or won’t be vaccinated due to conscientious objections.
“But once we get to 40 or 50% there’s not that justification for continuing restrictions.”
Once a certain amount of people have been vaccinated, immunity will build up in the population, according to Professor Dingwall.
But he said some problems may arise in terms of making sure the vaccination is accessible to everyone who needs it.
He said: “The biggest barrier is almost always access as opposed to anti-vax beliefs. We don’t hear so much from more socially marginalised people who may not be registered to a GP.
“Mostly we will use existing flu networks but for homeless people or some people in ethnic communities due to language and cultural barriers, you have to make special efforts.”
But aiming for a world where there is no death toll with coronavirus would mean restrictions lasting far longer, he said.
He said: “Aiming for zero deaths any time soon would come at such a price that is not worth paying. We can expect to see a much lower rate of deaths by this time next year and having the vaccine will get the level down as much as we’ve seen with the flu. Eliminating those deaths would mean we would have to continue living under the same restrictions indefinitely.”
We can expect to see a much lower rate of deaths by this time next year.
Prof Robert Dingwall