Bars ‘should not reopen until May’
BARS and restaurants should stay shut until May, researchers have suggested, as they warned that reopening society too quickly could have a “disastrous” effect.
A team of experts modelling the pandemic said that even if 90% of people are vaccinated against coronavirus, 10% would still be at risk of serious infection.
They argued that little is currently known about the effect of vaccines on transmission and if younger people catch coronavirus – they would be at risk of long Covid.
For these reasons the experts said they believed that restrictions should be lifted slowly, with various scenarios modelling what would happen if lockdowns lasted until the winter.
Releasing all measures at the end of April once all over-50s, those in high risk groups and frontline health and social workers are vaccinated, could still lead to a huge surge in cases, they said.
Dr Marc Baguelin, from Imperial College London, who sits on the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPIM), a sub-group of Sage, said the premature opening of the hospitality sector would lead to a “bump” in Covid-19 cases.
Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s World at One programme, he said: “We looked at the partial reopening and the increase in the R number – it will generate an increase in the R number – the extent of which we don’t know really.
“Something of this scale, if it was to happen earlier than May, would generate a bump in transmission, which is already really bad.
“So you have a lot of pressure on hospitals, you will have another wave of some extent.
“At best you will keep on having very, very unsustainable level of pressure on the NHS.”
The researchers’ recommendations come as it was announced that the NHS is vaccinating people against Covid-19 at the rate of 200 jabs every minute.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock told MPS the UK has now given more than five million doses of coronavirus vaccines to 4.6 million people.
“This virus is a lethal threat to us all and, as we respond through this huge endeavour (to vaccinate), let’s all take comfort in the fact we’re giving 200 vaccinations every minute,” he said.
“In the meantime, everyone must follow the rules to protect the NHS and save lives, and we can do that safe in the knowledge that the tide will turn and that, with science, we will prevail.”
The government, meanwhile, has announced fines of £800 will be handed out for anyone attending a house party of more than 15 people in England from next week.
At a Downing Street news conference, Home Secretary Priti Patel said there remained a “small minority that refuse to do the right thing”.
“The message is clear: If you don’t follow rules then the police will enforce them.”