UK’S R number falls to below one
THE reproduction number, or R value, of coronavirus has fallen below one for the first time since July and is now estimated to be between 0.7 and 0.9 across the UK.
In a sign that lockdown restrictions are having an impact and the epidemic is shrinking, scientists advising the Government gave their most optimistic outlook for the R number since cases fell last summer.
It comes as new data from the Office for National Statistics shows a drop in infections, with around one in 80 people in private households in England having Covid19 between January 31 and February 6, the equivalent of 695,400 people.
This is down from around one in 65 people for the period January 24 to 30.
The data is based on swab results from people with and without symptoms.
On February 9, the latest date for which figures are available, the number of patients in hospital with Covid-19 in the UK stood at 25,621.
This is down 35% from a peak of 39,236 on January 18, and is the lowest number since December 29.
But while scientists advising the Government believe cases of Covid-19 are dropping at a decent pace across England, they have warned that infection levels remain high.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson is facing calls from Tory sceptics to ease the lockdown once the pressure on the NHS eases and deaths drop.
But scientists argue that case numbers are still too high for a significant loosening of restrictions.
They believe that only by driving case numbers to much lower levels can NHS Test and Trace and surge testing work properly.
With low case numbers, clusters of cases can be identified more easily and new mutations to the virus can be picked up, one Government scientific adviser said. They argued that loosening restrictions when cases are low means there is less chance of R going above one, which leads to exponential growth of the virus, and this creates a quicker path back to normal life.
The current halving time of the virus (the time it takes to the number of new infections to halve in size) is thought to be at around 14 to 17 days.
Scientific advisers believe that if this continues, aided by the rollout of vaccines, then low case numbers can be achieved in the next two to three months.
Meanwhile, NHS England has said people aged 65 to 69 can now have a Covid-19 vaccine in England if GPS have done all they can to reach those at higher risk.
Some parts of England have already begun vaccinating the over-65s with their first dose after they reached everyone in the top four priority groups, including the over70s and care home residents, who wanted a jab.
Meanwhile, a total of 14,012,224 people in the UK have now received a first dose of Covid-19 vaccine, according to Government figures.
RUSSIA is prepared for a split with the European Union if the bloc imposes crippling new sanctions amid a dispute over the treatment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, the nation’s top diplomat has warned.
In response to a question about Moscow’s willingness to break links with the EU, foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia does not want to be isolated but must increase its self-sufficiency to face potential EU sanctions.
“We don’t want to be isolated from international life, but we must be ready for that,” he said. “If you want peace, you must prepare for war.”
Asked if Russia is heading towards a split with the EU, he replied: “We proceed from the assumption that we are ready for that.”
He emphasised the importance of economic ties with the 27 EU nations, adding that Moscow would continue engaging in mutually beneficial co-operation, but must prepare for the worst and increasingly rely on its own resources.
“We must achieve that in the economic sphere, if we see again, as we have felt more than once, that sanctions imposed in some areas create risks to our economy, including in the most sensitive spheres, such as supplies of parts and components,” he added.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasised that Russia wants to maintain normal ties with the EU but needs to prepare for the worst if the bloc takes hostile actions.
“If we face a destructive course that will hurt our infrastructure, our interests, Russia must be ready in advance for such unfriendly steps,” Mr Peskov said. “We must be selfreliant. We must ensure our security in the most sensitive strategic areas and be prepared to replace everything we could be deprived of with national infrastructure in case madness prevails and such unfriendly actions take place.”
German Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Andrea Sasse described Mr Lavrov’s comments as “really disconcerting and completely incomprehensible to us”.
She told reporters in Berlin that foreign minister Heiko Maas had made Germany’s grievances with Russia clear but also emphasised that “we are interested in co-operation with Russia”.
Russia-eu relations have sunk to new lows over Mr Navalny’s arrest and imprisonment.
The most prominent political foe of Russian president Vladimir Putin was arrested on January 17 on his return from Germany, where he spent five months recuperating from the nerve agent poisoning he blamed on the Kremlin. Russian authorities have denied the allegations.
Last week, a court in Moscow sent him to prison for two years and eight months for violating terms of his probation while recuperating in Germany. The probation stemmed from a 2014 embezzlement conviction that Mr Navalny has rejected as fabricated and the European Court of Human Rights has ruled to be unlawful.
He was back in court yesterday on a charge of defaming a World War Two veteran who was featured in a video last year advertising constitutional amendments that allowed an extension of Mr Putin’s rule.
Mr Navalny called the people in the video “corrupt stooges”, “people without conscience” and “traitors”. He rejected the libel charges as part of Kremlin efforts to discredit him and could face a fine or community service if convicted.