What does the ‘new normal’ hold for future of shopping?
NON-ESSENTIAL SHOPS WILL SOON BE ABLE TO OPEN THEIR DOORS AGAIN – BUT THE CHALLENGES FOR RETAIL IN THE POST-COVID LANDSCAPE ARE FROM OVER
NOTTINGHAM’S retail scene is clearly very different to a year ago, in the wake of 12 months of the Covid pandemic.
As it has done across the UK, the impact of Covid-19 and all the associated restrictions on shops opening, social distancing and lockdowns, hit Nottingham’s retail sector significantly.
Although there were huge changes already under way in shopping behaviours and, in particular the move to online retail, experts say the past year has simply seen this accelerate, not least in the grocery sector, where suddenly all the food and drink consumed in restaurants, cafes, coffee shops, bars and pubs transferred to homes.
Independent retail analyst Nelson Blackley told the Post: “During the past year, we have seen many major retail brands close some or all of their stores.
“In Nottingham this has included Debenhams on Long Row overlooking Old Market Square and Arcadia Group stores across the city. There has also been a recent flurry of closures on Lister Gate, including River Island, Boots and WH Smith.
“Realistically, other retailers may also close their stores in the city over the coming few months, and as some of the support provided around business rates, rent and staff furlough schemes are wound down.” The other big impact on Nottingham retail since this time last year was the fall into administration of intu, the owners of both the Victoria Centre and the Broadmarsh Centre. While the Victoria Centre has continued to trade, although with fewer tenants than a year ago, work to redevelop the Broadmarsh site came to a halt this time last year and the centre eventually closed its doors in June. While this has meant the planned redevelopment has now been abandoned and ownership of the site has reverted back to Nottingham City Council, it has provided the city with an opportunity to rethink the redevelopment of the 20-acre site and to make it fit into a post-covid future.
Mr Blackley added: “Going forward, I think there are still three hugely important ‘unknowns’ at this point and which will hold the key to the future of retail sector post-covid in Nottingham and around the UK.
“The first is likely to emerge from mid-april, when the latest lockdown for non-essential retail ends and so shoppers in many parts of the UK are able to return to their local high streets, town and city centres and shopping centres.
“But just because they can, will they choose to do so?”
The second factor is whether, or not, the millions of commuting office workers across the UK either choose to return to their pre-covid office locations - or are required to do so by their employers.
Mr Blackley added: “This has huge implications for retail, particularity in London and around the major commuter transport hubs, but also as well for major regional cities like Nottingham. However, I believe that a full year of working from home for so many people has changed the UK working landscape forever.
“The third unknown is whether the uncertainty of the past year will continue - even as things start to move back to normal, consumer confidence is key to the future health of retail and because many have accrued savings over the past year because of cancelled holidays, meals out, theatre and festivals etc. there have been predictions of a postcovid ‘spending boom.’
“However, I think this has been exaggerated as equally there are also lots of consumers whose financial position has weakened because of unemployment or their job security had reduced with job losses a real possibility when the various furlough and business support schemes end.”
A business expert also fears unemployment will continue to rise in the coming months.
Will Rossiter, associate professor at Nottingham Business School, said: “Clearly there’s been a massive change to people’s behaviour in relation to working patterns and habits.
“The key thing is how far will some of the changes we’ve seen become consolidated as part of the new normal. For instance, working from home, clearly some have been able to do that far more than others. By and large, it’s been the more elementary roles, the poorly paid that depend on face to face contact with a customer.
“Companies who have found ways of working remotely will have consequences for demand of commercial premises in city centre locations. It’ll have consequences for the numbers of workers who are going to work in the city centre which in turn will affect the footfall and passing trade for retail, hospitality and entertainment-type businesses.
“These are sectors that have been directly impacted by the sort of restrictions that have been in place so they face a double whammy.”
Realistically, other retailers may also close their stores in the city over the coming months. Nelson Blackley