Predicting future Covid waves
DATA SCIENTISTS USING SIMULATOR TO FORECAST IMPACT OF THE NEXT OUTBREAKS
NEARLY 700,000 Covid jabs have now been administered in Nottinghamshire as the vaccine rollout progresses.
So far, 683,974 vaccinations have been administered in Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, with 53,677 delivered in the last week.
In total, 169,360 second doses have now been administered. The NHS is urging anyone who qualifies for a jab, but has not yet received one, to book an appointment.
Those who are currently eligible include over-40s, frontline health and social care workers as well as those who are clinically vulnerable and carers. You can book an appointment by calling 119 or visiting the National Booking Website.
The figures come as the NHS in the county recorded 21 hospital admissions relating to Covid-19 in the week to April 25, which compared to 47 in the previous seven day period.
There were 66 beds occupied by Covid patients on April 27, compared to 81 on April 20. Of those 66 beds, 10 percent were mechanically ventilated.
And in the week April 19-25 there were three Covid deaths in Nottinghamshire’s hospitals – up from zero the previous week.
Now data scientists are helping the NHS plan for future waves by modelling disease characteristics with daily updated information.
Datalabs, the research unit for Experian, uses advanced technology and data sources to simulate when and where the next wave of the virus is likely to have an impact on hospital resources.
The epidemiological simulator and forecaster notes death rates and trends from 13 countries plus the UK and blends with other data including population statistics, UK death rates in 120 NHS Trusts and social distancing policies.
As situations such as social distancing measures change over time, the model’s “what-if simulator” can forecast the impact in specific areas and for any kind of future measurelifting scenario that can be produced.
Keith Girling, medical director at Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, said: “We need the ability to plan and forecast to deliver the best care we can. Working collaboratively with Experian and the local
Integrated Care System (ICS) to look at how we can use data to prepare has been an immensely valuable and appreciated programme of work.
“We have to learn to live with Covid-19 and we need all of the help access to intelligence like this so that we can respond to and tackle the virus.”
Javier Campos Zabala, general manager of Experian Datalabs UK&I, added: “This crisis has shown how data science can be used as a force for good, helping inform decision-makers charged with navigating the immediate crisis.
“This new model delivers the much-needed data to allow hospitals to forecast and plan for future outbreaks of Covid-19.
“Partnering with NUH has delivered this valuable tool and other NHS Trusts across the country are now keen to use it to ensure they can deliver the best care to their patients.”