Octane

HAGI Ferrari index

- Dave Selby

AGAINST A BACKDROP of mixed pricing the HAGI F measure of collector-grade Ferraris ended November down 0.14%. Following October’s decline of 2.97%, this puts the index 3.09% off September’s peak, with YTD growth 11 months in of 10.17%. Not only does it seem highly unlikely that at year end the HAGI F will approach the 17.53% growth achieved in 2014, it’s also highly probable that 2015 will see the index post the lowest augmentati­on since 2011, when it achieved 10.58%.

Through November, while transactio­ns in truly rare high-end models supported the index, some models from the 1950s to 1970s built in numbers greater than 100 showed vulnerabil­ity. However, select higher-volume, later-era Ferrari models continue to appeal to a new audience across a broad price range.

In November trading volumes also dipped. Market-watchers may well be wondering if this is attributab­le to historic seasonal patterns, or whether this well-trusted leading market indicator is also part of the dynamic.

Additional­ly, with YTD growth in some sectors of the market more than doubling that of the HAGI F, it’s clear some collectors are shi ing focus to other marques, attracted by perceived value for money and lower entry.

Short-termists may find the HAGI F’s 2015 performanc­e lacklustre for a sector that has returned historic annual long-term average growth of 16%; others will welcome this relative moderation. For wider context, and even a reality check, compare our universe with the YTD deficit in global equities. Visit historicau­togroup.com for more.

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