HAGI TOP INDEX

FEBRUARY SAW DECLINES across the board of HAGI market measures, with month-on-month losses ranging from 2.77% to 5.13%. As a result of these February corrections, all HAGI indices, with one notable exception, are posting a year-on-year deficit for the first time since the market began to post positive annual returns in 2010.

The HAGI Top overall market measure of investment-grade collectable cars declined 4.68% in February, which, for what it’s worth, was closely in line with global equities. Year on year the Top has lost 4.62%. Very simply, after a long period of strong and sustained annual growth (13% from 2012 to 2016) in excess of the sector’s historic long-term yearly average, the HAGI Top has left the growth trend for the time being. The same mean reversal applies to the HAGI Porsche and Ferrari marque benchmarks. Yet overall, these three indices are worth well over three times their 2008 valuation. In addition, the performance of the three indices to date from 2008 is incredibly closely matched.

The exception, mentioned last month, is the more broadly composed HAGI Mercedes-Benz Classic Index. It, too, fell back in February, but remains in positive territory year on year, with growth of 2.61%.

There are also pockets of strong growth among some ‘emerging classics’. Including higher-production youngtimers with lower price points, there were monthly advances of 3.5% in some sectors, with year-on-year gains of 22.12%. Here price performance is focused on exceptional examples, a sure sign of a maturing market.

Visit historicautogroup.com for further market analysis.

Dave Selby