HAGI PORSCHE INDEX

ALTHOUGH the HAGI P was little-changed in September, with an advance of just 0.14%, there was much activity behind that figure, with losses in some areas offset by gains elsewhere. This was particularly evident among some older air-cooled models.

If we dig deeper, we find that pricing in both the Porsche sector and elsewhere exhibited considerable bandwidth, a sign perhaps that excess inventory may now have been largely sold off as enthusiasts make value judgements based on the quality of an asset rather than a need to sell. Put more simply, there seems a better balance between sell-side need and buy-side opportunity.

In the Porsche arena, the year to date divides neatly into three timeframes. In the first quarter the HAGI P fell back 6.92%, down more than any other sector. In the second quarter the HAGI P managed to advance 2.33%, this time performing better than all the other sectors. In the third quarter the HAGI P has once again led the rankings, with a 10.36% quarter-on-quarter gain that adds up to a 5.13% upside in the year to date.

It’s a result better than that of any other HAGI index, which in some cases have proved negative in the year to date.

Certainly that third-quarter advance amounts to a strong short-term recovery, but it’s too early to talk of a trend. At an index level of 357.12, the HAGI P is still some distance shy of its November 2016 peak of 374.15. Since then a clear downward trend has taken shape through three cycles.

By the end of the year we’ll have a better idea whether that downward trend is perpetuated by another trough or whether the HAGI P is about to break out. The HAGI P is tantalisingly poised. See www. historicautogroup.com for more.