5G: Is anyone falling for the hype?
With 4G still in its infancy, is there any appetite for the promise of even faster 5G networks? Stewart Mitchell investigates
With 4G still in its infancy, is there any appetite for the promise of even faster 5G networks?
the government has pledged the best part of a billion pounds towards it, the handset makers are desperate for it, but experts are seeing little appetite among network operators for the much-hyped 5G technology.
Although the final standard won’t be ratified until later this year, the International Telegraph Union’s (ITU) specifications have been released and, as always, the headline speed figures are alluring. The specification demands at least a 20Gbits/sec downlink and 10Gbits/sec uplink per mobile base station, and although this is shared bandwidth, it promises potential for a significant speed boost and lower latency for mobile broadband customers. Moreover, Ofcom research even suggests that the technology could eventually exceed a benchmark of 50Gbits/sec.
The government announced a £16m 5G test hub as part of its spring budget announcements, which follows on from the further £740m it announced it was devoting to 5G in the autumn. However, with network operators still short of recouping their investment in 4G, industry watchers see no great desire to quickly take the plunge into next-generation 5G networks.
“We see a lot of hype about 5G and it’s interesting to see different approaches people are taking,” explained Kester Mann, mobile infrastructure expert with research company CCS Insight.
“The Asian players and some in the US are very keen to get early to market and set the tone for 5G. If you compare that to the UK players – although the European Commission is quite bullish – with operators there’s a lot more caution and a lot more strategy and looking to get the most benefits possible from 4G.”
Furthermore, there’s a suspicion that the debate surrounding 5G is being led by hardware manufacturers, who are keen for a new standard to revitalise sales, rather than carriers and consumers. “There’s still scepticism as to how much 5G will change things compared to 4G and whether the apps and services that require a 5G network are going to be there,” said Mann.
“5G has to be careful that it doesn’t get ahead of itself because the path towards fully using 4G still has a long way to go. Neither operators nor manufacturers want to invest too early in a technology with uncertain use cases. Europe will be behind with 5G – similar to how it was with 4G,” Mann added.
Fixed broadband replacement?
As with 3G and 4G before it, one potential use case for 5G networks is to eventually replace wired broadband, especially in areas outside of the fibre footprint. “Verizon and AT&T see 5G as a replacement to home broadband,” revealed Mann. “They’re talking about fixed wireless applications and trialling this year with pre-commercial services coming in 2018.”
However, broadband market watchers in this country are highly sceptical of the notion of 5G disrupting the fixed-line market, not least because of the tight data caps
that are imposed on mobile broadband customers. “Do I expect 5G to deliver unlimited packages when 4G before it has not?” said Andrew Ferguson, network expert at thinkbroadband.com. “No, not unless the operators believe they can destroy the fixed-line market, and thus raise prices in a few years’ time – be aggressive early to get market share and then hit us with price rises once we’re addicted.”
Nevertheless, early 5G might be useful in high density areas where it could serve as an alternative to Wi-Fi in cities and shopping centres, for example. “The mast density aspect explains the rush in the last few years to get street furniture in place offering the ‘free’ public Wi-Fi, since if you have kit in lampposts and billboards then adding 5G becomes easier and others don’t have the same access,” Ferguson said.
“CityFibre, for example, will be banking on 5G operators needing cheap dark fibre access to support the high capacities, and there’s also the push by Ofcom for Openreach to offer dark fibre.”
Latent potential
If there’s any cause for excitement about 5G, it’s perhaps not so much about the headline speeds as the reduced latency that the technology promises. “The speed is one part, but then there’s lower latency and higher capacity, and it might be the lower latency that’s the real game changer,” said Mann.
“The low latency – targeting 1ms – will be important in areas such as mission-critical services, remote surgery or financial trading that needs really quick response times. And virtual reality would need low latency.”
Mann continued: “For autonomous driving systems, for example, to reach their full potential you would need a fullyfledged 5G network with that speed, capacity and latency.”
The low latency – targeting 1ms – will be important in areas such as missioncritical services