REPORTS OF MY DEATH HAVE BEEN GREATLY EXAGGERATED
Ignore the doomsayers: despite a year-on-year decrease in sales figures, experts agree that the tablet is here to stay
The tablet has certainly seen its ups and downs. At first, following the release of the original iPad and the inevitable crowd of imitators, it was all up: "The rate at which the tablet market grew from 2010 to 2013 was unlike many other consumer-oriented device markets we've seen before,” noted IDC’s Ryan Reith earlier this year. If anything that’s an understatement: over the course of those three years, tablet sales rocketed from more or less zero to nearly 80 million units per quarter.
Since then, though, things have slowed down. 20% fewer tablets were sold in 2016 than in the year before, and the most recent figures suggest another 10% decline in 2017. If you’re thinking of buying a new tablet, you might be wondering whether it’s wise to invest in a moribund market.
But the experts believe that tablet computing will be with us for a long time yet. “Tablets aren’t going away,” Tim Coulling, senior analyst at Canalys assured us. “That massive explosion, where people thought that tablets would be the next big computing devices – that’s definitely passed. But there’s still plenty of volume in the market; in fact, it’s doing better than the PC market. We’re expecting to see around five million tablets shipped in 2017, and around four and a half million next year. So sales certainly aren’t going into the ground.”
Roberta Cozza, research director at Gartner, also believes that tablets have life in them yet – and points out that slowing sales don’t necessarily mean slowing enthusiasm. “The problem with this market is that lifecycles have lengthened,” she explained. “Yes, users still want tablets, but the average tablet from over a year ago is still okay today. People just don’t need to buy a new one, unless they see that there’s a clear benefit.”
This perhaps is the key to the issue, because what’s the most popular use for a tablet? “Tablets are very convenient for content consumption,” noted Coulling. “As a personal device to watch movies on and consume content, the tablet beats a notebook form factor hands down. You can lie back on the couch watching Netflix, with no keyboard in the way, and the battery lasts longer. You still see many of them being used on aeroplanes by travellers.” Newer models may offer powerful processors and accessories, but if all you need is a video player, there’s no incentive to upgrade.
Another factor is that sales of smaller tablets have been cannibalised by phablets. “Smartphone screens are going even above six inches now,” said Cozza, “and some of the new displays on the new flagship phones are very impressive, such as the Infinity Display from Samsung… So you get a very good experience on the smartphone, and what you get from a 7in tablet is very similar.” In other words, you don’t need both.
Yet bigger, more powerful tablets still have something to offer. “After the boom of seven-inch tablets, users are now looking for something more,” Cozza suggested. “They want to be more productive, and by that I don’t only mean at work – there’s also ‘consumer productivity’, tasks that you would previously have done on your desktop family PC, like online shopping. That sort of activity is nowadays carried out on tablets.”
And then there’s the rise of the iPad Pro and its high-end Android counterparts, whose keyboard and stylus attachments turn them into viable platforms for serious work. Here, our analysts sounded a note of caution: “An iPad is not a Mac, and an Android is… what it is,” opined Cozza diplomatically. “I don’t think we can call either a true PC replacement, in the sense that if someone is looking to replace a PC they would more likely pick a Windows 10-based hybrid like a Surface Pro.” “There will be people who find that all of their work can be done on an iPad,” added Coulling, “but for most people it’s not going to work. Still, one of Apple’s primary customer segments is creatives, and I’m sure they really appreciate the Apple Pencil. So for them perhaps it’s replacing the paper workflow rather than the notebook or laptop.”
Overall, there was positivity about the new generation of tablets. “The iPad Pro is a good upgrade for someone whose iPad is really ageing,” said Cozza, “and not just because of the keyboard or the Pencil, but thanks to new features in terms of multitasking, split-screen apps and drag-and-drop file management. It’s also a great device for enterprises looking to give employees a tablet with which they can be more productive.”
And there’s a final reason why tablets aren’t going anywhere in the near future – they’re the perfect platform for the less computer savvy. “My mother used to have a desktop PC,” confided Coulling. “And when she got her iPad, the tech-support calls I was fielding went from four or five a month to twice a year.” That alone is a pretty good reason why tablets won’t be going anywhere for the foreseeable future.