Universal broadband? Count to ten
Plans to guarantee dismal broadband speeds for all are foundering, Stewart Mitchell finds, as pressure builds on the government to rethink its Universal Service Obligation
Plans to guarantee broadband speeds for all are foundering, Stewart Mitchell finds, as pressure builds on the government.
The Universal Service Obligation (USO) that guarantees all households a modest level of broadband will leave many homes without the “guaranteed” speed and remains uncosted, less than 18 months before it is due to come into effect, a PC Pro investigation has found.
The USO promises 10Mbits/sec download and 1Mbit/sec upload speeds, with telecoms regulator Ofcom inviting providers to tender for the project.
However, critics point out that even this modest target is already outdated and likely to fail.
“The USO they’re suggesting is a fudge – you have a second-rate solution for the majority to fill a criteria that’s too low,” said Chris Conder, a founder of the community fibre provider B4RN. “10Mbits/sec in a year or two will be a farce – the USO should be 100Mbits/sec.”
The comments echo concerns from the House of Lords, which had been pushing for a USO that set the minimum download speed at 30Mbits/sec. “By the government’s own admission, the USO is simply a safety net and frankly, not a very good one at that,” explained Lord Foster of Bath, highlighting that most of the research preferred a faster base rate.
“I have looked at many Ofcom documents and I cannot find a single one in which they express real enthusiasm for a USO of just 10Mbits/sec. The lack of ambition shown in the USO is common to much of the government’s whole approach to broadband rollout.”
In the light of the government’s recent announcement of a major investment for a full fibre Britain, a botched USO might seem insignificant, but the timeline for that rollout runs to 2033. For bandwidth-challenged businesses and homes, that could mean a long wait.
“If the government push for full fibre does translate into a genuine 100% of premises, full-fibre landscape by 2033, then those not in the current scope of the various BDUK projects will probably only have the improvement from the USO to see them all the way through the 2020s,” said Andrew Ferguson, an analyst with Thinkbroadband.
When “universal” has limits
Under the USO scheme, selected providers (with BT the frontrunner) would be obliged to provide a connection with synced speeds meeting the “10 down, one up” criteria, but only if it can be done for under £3,400 per household.
It sounds like a reasonable chunk of cash, but there are various get-out clauses that allow providers to avoid costlier premises. “In short, it seems that even if BT is the only USO provider, where existing technology can meet the USO specification you will need to pick that alternate provider,” said Ferguson.
“If an area has something that’s USO capable – that’s basically fixed wireless providers or 4G – you can’t claim through the USO scheme.”
According to Ferguson, a USO provider “might just send you a 4G router and if a 4G router will do the trick, then why bother rolling out FTTP [fibre-to-the-premises]?”
Where the cost of fibre or copper connection would cost more than £3,400, end users are likely to be offered nothing better than satellite broadband, with all its latency and cost problems.
Ofcom figures suggest that even allowing for areas covered by 4G and fixed wireless, 59,000 premises would be left unserved because an installation would cost more than the £3,400 limit. In its documentation, the Department for Culture Media and Sport admits that “these premises may be left with satellite connections as the only option” and for critics, this undermines the whole point of a USO. “Everybody can be ticked off as having been provided under the USO, because you just put them on satellite – so it’s a get-out-of-jail card,” said Conder.
The Broadband Stakeholder Group, a trade body for the telecoms industry, justified the exclusion of some homes by saying that making the USO truly universal would be
Everybody can be ticked off as having been provided under the USO, because you just put them on satellite
too expensive. “If the cost of providing the connection is over £3,400 then you can either choose to pay the extra or be offered a satellite solution,” said Matthew Evans, CEO of BSG. “This helps ensure that everyone benefits to some degree whilst avoiding the exponential costs of the last few premises where they can rise to over £40,000.”
Furthermore, if there’s a planned rollout from another source – for example from BDUK projects – that’s due to be delivered within a year, a householder can’t ask for a USO provider to upgrade their service. “You can only invoke the USO if there are no plans for a rollout to your area in the next year,” explained Ferguson, “Scotland’s planning to finish rollout in 2021 so no-one in Scotland will be able to demand USO.”
Yet more delays
With less than 18 months before the USO is due to come into effect, there remains no clear outline of how it will be organised or costed, and there are doubts that everything will be in place in time.
“The government expects the ISPs to fund this through what is known as a Universal Service Fund, although how that will work and how much funding will be generated is anyone’s guess,” said Gary Hough, regulatory manager at ISP Zen.
Ofcom told us it is still considering who will pay, but the scheme is expected to see bills rise across the board to cover the cost of USO provision. “On average, consumers might see increases in household bills ranging from just under £11 per annum to deliver a standard broadband universal service to just under £20 per annum to deliver a superfast broadband universal service,” the regulator said in its USO report to government.
Nobody knows how many people might take up the USO, although Thinkbroadband estimates it would be available to just under a million premises. “Ofcom seems to optimistically think it’ll have things in place for next summer,” said Ferguson. “Ofcom might be ready but then you have all the providers [who need] to work out what they’re doing and set up ordering systems.
“Business can speculate, but until Ofcom has signed it off and the legal challenges are done, you can’t build a business plan or build a model on it.”