German-style system key to beating COVID

A professor of respiratory research from Perth has said he hopes the impact of coronavirus in the UK can be slowed by following the model used in Germany.

Professor James Chalmers believes testing and public health infrastructure was key to Germany slowing down the spread of COVID-19, and he is hopeful that, with similar infrastructure now in place here, the UK can slow the spread of the virus.

But he also warned that the virus had not changed despite more cases being detected in younger people and fewer hospital admissions.

Professor Chalmers thinks this may be down to younger people coming out of lockdown more quickly and more vulnerable groups still effectively shielding.

He told the PA: “I think younger people have come out of lockdown most quickly – younger people are mixing more at work, socially and in newly reopened workplaces, bars, restaurants and sports facilities and so are now most at risk of infection.

“Most older people are still being cautious and most of my patients who have been shielding tell me they are still effectively shielding despite the government lifting the recommendations.”

Professor Chalmers has been closely observing the situation in Germany.

He said: “Once the virus enters a population it tends to spread within close contacts and therefore often within the same age group – we saw that at the beginning of the pandemic in Germany where the German outbreak started from a group that returned from a skiing trip.

“They were young and mixed with other young people, who mixed with other young people and so in the initial stages the German outbreak was primarily among younger people (and hence was milder and had a lower mortality rate than in the UK).”

He added: “We are now seeing a similar ‘German style’ set of outbreaks in the UK, but hopefully the public health measures being put in place will mean it does not spread further in the population.

“Rapid testing and isolation means that younger people get isolated away from at risk groups.”

Germany has had a significantly lower death rate than the UK. As the PA goes to press, it has had 243,000 positive cases of COVID-19 and 9363 deaths, compared to the UK which has had 334,000 positive cases and 41,499 deaths.

Professor Chalmers said: “The virus wasn’t any different in Germany, they just had the testing infrastructure and public health infrastructure to identify the virus in the younger population and thereby slow down its spread into at risk groups.

“So another way of looking at where we are in Scotland is that finding the virus in young people is good, because it means we are doing lots of testing which we know will stop the virus spreading further in the population and spreading into those who are at high risk of complications and death.”