GERS figures make the case for the union
Every year the publication of the GERS (Government Expenditure and Revenues in Scotland) figures provokes a lively political debate, and this year has been no exception.
The GERS figures are produced by Scottish Government statisticians and give the amount of money raised in taxes in Scotland, compared to the level of public spending.
In general terms for the financial year 2019-20, they show that Scottish taxes raised approximately £66 billion as against public spending of £81bn.
This shows a fiscal gap, or a deficit, of some £15bn, up from £13bn in the previous year.
This deficit is now larger than the entire Scottish health service budget, which stands at just short of £14bn.
The gap is made up by fiscal transfers from the rest of the UK, a‘union dividend,’ now worth almost £2000 for every man, woman and child in Scotland for the last year.
Without that transfer, we would have to see massive cuts in public spending in Scotland, dramatic tax hikes, or a combination of both, just to maintain services where they currently stand.
As a percentage of GDP, Scottish deficits increased to 8.6 per cent, compared to the UK rate of just 2.5 per cent.
With new members of the EU required to have a deficit of less than three per cent of GDP, this would put in question any suggestion of Scotland being able to join the EU in the event it became an independent country.
These figures have a clear impact on the independence debate.
Back in 2012, Nicola Sturgeon claimed that the GERS figures at that time were evidence of the strength of the case for independence.
Now, when the opposite is the case, she and her colleagues can hardly deny the reality, which is that an independent Scotland would face massive financial challenges from the very start.
The entire NHS in Scotland could be at risk just to come close to balancing the budget in a separate state.
The figures do not even cover the great majority of the blockbuster support from the UK Government throughout the COVID pandemic, including the furlough scheme, which has been one of the most generous job-saving schemes in the entire world.
Since the end of March, the deficit will have grown even more dramatically.
All this demonstrates is the strength and security that Scotland has as part of the UK, where its broad shoulders are able to support us in time of difficulty.
The levels of spending on public services we see today would simply be unaffordable in the event that we went down the route of independence.
We are far better off as part of the partnership of nations that is the United Kingdom.