How to pick a Cham­pion Jockey

Miles Tred­well gives his ad­vice

Racing Ahead - - CHAMPION JOCKEY -

In early Au­gust, the Syn­di­cate’s Miles Tred­well suc­cess­fully tipped Jim Crow­ley at 50/1 to be the Flat jockey cham­pion. Here he looks at the gen­eral think­ing be­hind such a bet and can­di­dates for next year's ti­tle.

Let’s start with a pretty sim­ple and ob­vi­ous equa­tion, but one which serves to fo­cus on what we should be look­ing at when as­sess­ing who could be the next Flat Jockey Cham­pion:

Num­ber of rides X Strike-rate = Num­ber of win­ners

While only one rider will be the cham­pion, they will need to have both a high num­ber of rides through­out the sea­son and a suit­ably strong strike-rate and when these two fac­tors are con­sid­ered, the con­clu­sion can be quickly made that only a dozen or so jock­eys could be that cham­pion.

This sea­son, Jim Crow­ley and Silvestre de Sousa both had 759 rides, more than any­one else and only six other jock­eys to­talled 500 or more. It helps that nei­ther are di­rectly at­tached to any spe­cific sta­ble, nor op­er­ate as re­tained rid­ers for any owner.This gives them the free­dom to ride where they choose and both shunned big­ger prize-pots for the in­creased chance of vic­to­ries at smaller meet­ings. Such ties bind many other po­ten­tial ri­vals.

An­other hur­dle for flat jock­eys can be their weight. Adam Kirby and Ge­orge Baker, for ex­am­ple, are both ex­tremely tal­ented but to­wards the top of the weight spec­trum, re­sult­ing in over a third of all horses be­ing un­avail­able to them and be­cause of this they are un­likely to be able to ob­tain the num­ber of req­ui­site rides.

Once we have a list of jock­eys able to have enough rides, we can shorten the pos­si­bil­i­ties to those who are also likely to have a high enough strike-rate.

Crow­ley and SDS are ob­vi­ously on the short­list. SDS is per­haps the most likely to triumph in 2017 be­cause there is scope for him to bet­ter his to­tal of this year- he had a lengthy ban in July and a lengthy los­ing run shortly after­wards when it’s pos­si­ble he had his whip use in mind and was ad­just­ing his style. Ad­di­tion­ally, Crow­ley picked up quite a few rides for Ralph Beck­ett when Fran Berry was in­jured and may opt to at­tend the more lu­cra­tive meet­ings next year.

The Jockey Cham­pi­onship may not be at the top of Ryan Moore’s pri­or­i­ties, but be­cause his strike-rate con­sis­tently tops 20%,if he stays free from in­jury,he may be in con­tention late in the sea­son,prompt­ing a late dart.

Paul Hana­gan was cham­pion in 2010 and 2011 be­fore be­com­ing re­tained rider for Sheik Ham­dan Al Mak­toum.With that part­ner­ship hav­ing re­cently ended, he may be in a po­si­tion to put in an­other chal­lenge. In those two win­ning years, Hana­gan rode over 150 win­ners for Richard Fa­hey and with the trainer’s num­bers sub­se­quently in­creas­ing, if the pair are back in tan­dem,then the am­mu­ni­tion will cer­tainly be there.

De­spite his link to Qatar Rac­ing, Oisin Murphy man­aged to clock up 609 rides this sum­mer, with a 14% strike-rate. The rel­a­tive new­comer in the pack,as his rep­u­ta­tion grows along with his ex­pe­ri­ence, there’s rea­son to think he can im­prove on those num­bers and beat this sea­son’s 6th place.

Jim Crow­ley

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from UK

© PressReader. All rights reserved.