Brexit: decline in GDP would hit freight, says Smith
Loss of GDP as a result of political uncertainty would harm the freight market, according to GB Railfreight Managing Director John Smith.
At a GBRf event on July 5, Smith said that the vacuum in government decision-making post the EU Referendum is already having an effect on major projects, thus producing a knock-on effect to the freight industry.
Smith said intermodal traffic could also be particularly affected: “Intermodal is very GDP-driven. If GDP starts to drift, people will keep money in their pockets and they won’t be buying their cuddly toys and their bottles of wine or anything else. Exports might increase because of the reduction in the exchange rate, but unfortunately we were already importing three times more than we were exporting.”
However, Smith did say that freight is an innovative industry and that “change is never a bad thing for a business - it gives you plenty of opportunity to do other things”.
Meanwhile, Libor Lochman, the executive director of CER (Community of European Railway and Infrastructure Companies), has told RAIL that Brexit “should have no impact on the way we work”.
CER represents the interests of 70 member companies on EU policy-making. The Association of Train Operating Companies (ATOC) and HS2 Ltd are included in its membership.
Lochman told RAIL that both companies have had a long-term co-operation with CER, and that the UK leaving the EU should not change the way they work together.
“It’s a question of how our systems are connected. The UK is connected with continental Europe now and we need to keep the interoperability of trains crossing through the Tunnel. It [Brexit] doesn’t change anything,” he said.
Lochman explained that legislation can already be adapted to local conditions, such as those in the UK, so standards are likely to remain unchanged. He was keen to point out that CER only represents the operators’ perspectives, and that manufacturers and suppliers may have a very different view on the effects of a Brexit.