Fare Dealer
fares expert Barry Doe looks at how rail fares have changed since privatisation.
THIS year, the Rail Delivery Group’s Avantix fares download, which I always advocate that readers use ( http://data.atoc.org), didn’t appear until after the fares rise, so I was unable to analyse fares before the New Year. As a result, my annual tables appear later than usual.
As always, one shows the percentage change in walk-on fares since privatisation for all operators that serve London. The other shows returns throughout the country for a 100-mile-each-way journey, this year adding the cheapest possible First Class advance fare, as well as Standard.
Bear in mind that the advance fares are the cheapest possible in the database, but that doesn’t imply you’d be able to buy them at this price for any given day.
For the first table, I commence with my usual reminder - that a 200% increase does not mean a fare has doubled, but trebled. Now, the 86% inflation since 1995 equates to an average of 2.8% per annum. If fares had risen a mere 0.4% above that each year they would now have doubled, so I consider anything 100% or under as ‘reasonable’.
For First and Standard Anytime (peak) fares c2c, Caledonian Sleeper (CS), Great Northern, London Northwestern (LNW) and Thameslink come into this category.
Sleeper travel has to be booked, but I only considered CS flexible fares that offer a full refund if cancelled, compared with the 1995 situation of a fare plus a berth fee. It will be interesting to see how things progress as they move towards more luxurious accommodation.
For monthly off-peak fares (old Savers and SuperSavers), only CS, Great Western Railway (Network area), LNW, South Western Railway, Southern and Virgin West Coast (VWC) have kept within 100%. It’s interesting that when it comes to OP Day Returns, none has.
With seasons, most have been kept down, but notice the two exceptions of GWR inter-city and Southeastern. The latter is the classic route, as High Speed 1 didn’t exist in 1995. Classic fares rose on Government diktat to help fund HS1. Will this happen with HS2?
GWR’s fares are appalling overall. Yes, its First Class fares fell this year (in my opinion, to reflect the lower quality of new trains), but Standard increases of 270% against 86% inflation cannot be justified.
Virgin West Coast Anytime fares are exorbitant, but it has far cheaper OP Returns and seasons than GWR. Indeed, VWC’s First Class seasons are a gift, bearing in mind that they include meals!
Turning to the second table: this covers all operators that offer 100-mile journeys, and includes rural routes. Where an operator doesn’t have exact 100-mile options I’ve calculated pro-rata to obtain proper comparisons.
To me, this is the more interesting table with its huge range of results. The inter-city villain GWR suddenly appears as the hugely benevolent rural operator, with the cheapest walk-on fares in the country - £11 Day Return for 200 miles of travel!
It’s encouraging to note how many operators still charge under £50 for off-peak Monthly Returns, and also to note how very cheap Scottish rail fares are overall. Against that, note how GWR (inter-city) and CrossCountry not only charge over £250 for the First Class Anytime Return, but a minimum of £60 advance.
The greatest iniquity of all, however, remains CrossCountry’s advance-on-the-day system that insists on a seat reservation.
Someone can pay £260 for a flexible First Class return, only to be turned out of his seat midway through the journey in favour of someone who bought a £20 fare that morning. That the industry allows this is shameful.