Paul Clifton

A new study reveals that young people are travelling less. And with this trend set to continue, predicting future travel needs will become harder. Will this affect the need to build new lines and to provide greater rail capacity? PAUL CLIFTON reports

“This change in behaviour is about more than just a lack of money in the current climate - it is a fundamental shift in the way we live. For train operators, could this be a suggestion that the bubble has burst?”

YOUNG adults today are driving less than young adults did in the 1990s.

This is in sharp contrast to the Baby Boomer generation of people born between the end of the Second World War and the mid-1960s, who became wealthier and travelled further with each passing year. It was one of the most significant social trends for decades.

The Department for Transport has commissioned a study entitled Young People’s Travel: What’s Changed and Why? from the Centre for Transport and Society at the University of the West of England and from the Transport Studies Unit at the University of Oxford. The study looks at people between the ages of 17 and 29, and assesses what will happen as those people get older.

Driving among young people peaked in 1992-94, with 48% of 17 to 20- year-olds and 75% of 21 to 29-year-olds holding a driving licence. By 2014, that had fallen to 29% and 63% respectively.

Over an equivalent period, there was a 36% drop in the number of car trips per young person. The rate fell much faster among men.

However, not many of those journeys have been replaced by trips on public transport. At the same time, the number of walking trips has also fallen. Young men in particular are making 28% fewer journeys in total now than they were in the 1990s.

And there is every indication that this long-term trend will continue far into the future. The study concludes that this change in behaviour is about more than just a lack of money in the current economic climate - it is a fundamental shift in the way we live.

For train operators, could this be a suggestion that the bubble has burst? We have also seen a drop in daily commuting, as people who used to work in an office five days a week increasingly work one or two days a week at home or elsewhere.

All major investment programmes on the railway are based on a perceived need to provide greater capacity - more and longer trains to make room for a relentless rise in passenger numbers. What if that turns out to be wrong?

Young adults have experienced stagnation in wage rates, increases in the cost of renting or owning a home, and a decline in disposable income that has not been experienced by older people.

Lower numbers in full-time employment can also explain a drop in total travel. More people are taking low-wage part-time jobs, with the trend towards “zero hours” contracts and the “gig economy”.

Not driving is increasingly seen by young people as socially acceptable, or even desirable. It is seen as nonessential at this stage in life.

The study finds that has much to do with new communication technology. We are sitting in front of a computer, tablet or phone for longer, therefore we are going out less. There is a decline in face-toface social interaction, both for work and at leisure.

There is a large increase in time spent at home for young men - up by a remarkable 80 minutes a day between 1995 and 2014. The figure for women is up by 40 minutes a day.

Analysis of census data also shows a substantial change in commuting behaviour among younger people.

This is tied to other big demographic trends in society. Young people are living with their parents for longer, and more of them are staying in higher education. When they do eventually set up on their own, they are more likely to be in cities. They are affected by a rise in lower-paid, less secure jobs and by a resulting decline in disposable income. They are starting permanent work older, buying houses later or not at all, beginning relationships at a more mature age, and delaying the point at which they have children.

In other words, the reasons for changing patterns of travel lie largely outside the influence of the transport industry.

The study calls this “a delayed transition into a traditional form of adulthood”. It happens partly by choice, caused by changes in the

labour and housing markets.

But changes in transport conditions also play a role. Young people are deterred from driving by high costs, especially insurance. Reductions in car use, and increases in rail use, have happened most in London and other areas with high population density, where constraints on cars are greatest and public transport alternatives are most readily available.

The consequence, conclude the academics, is that future travel demand is getting harder to predict.

The lower travel made by young people in the 1990s has been sustained as that cohort reaches the age of 40 now. And once they do start, those people who begin to drive or commute by train later in life tend to do so less.

That aligns with other long-term national goals: lowering carbon emissions and improving air quality. But less mobility and reduced social interaction also have a negative impact on health and wellbeing.

Given that many young people have become accustomed to a car-free lifestyle compared with previous generations, this is likely to remain true throughout their working years. This “new norm” will filter down to the millennials who are now reaching working age.

What is this “new norm”? In 2014, only 37% of young people got in a car during a typical week. In 1995, that figure was 46%.

“It is possible that these changes are the first phase of a social change that will continue through successive generations,” concludes the report.

“The speed of change is affected by security of employment, urbanisation, housing availability, career expectations, and demographic and taxation factors that affect how wealth moves between generations. New habits are being formed which can be long-lasting.”

It is widely assumed that growth in income will resume in the longterm. But given the social changes taking place now, that won’t necessarily lead to people resuming greater travel, as it did in the past.

Older people tended to move away from cities as they became richer. Millennials are more likely to rent than buy homes, and more likely to live in cities, both from choice and from necessity.

If this study by a dozen academics at two of the country’s leading transport research institutions proves accurate, there are fundamental implications for future transport provision. Will we really need more tracks, more trains and more roads if people are travelling less than before?

For London, almost certainly. The population of the UK has increased by 12% in 20 years, largely through immigration, with the growth largely concentrated in the South East. Elsewhere, growth in transport demand is less intense.

Outside the biggest cities, bus use has declined steadily, and rail travel is based largely around driving to the station. We’re approaching a point at which only half of younger households have a car.

We once assumed an unbreakable link between economic growth and increasing travel. One was not possible without the other. As each generation grew up, people moved more frequently and further, for both work and leisure.

No, suggests this important study. Not any more. Instead, we’re staying at home for eight hours a week more than we used to. And we need to plan our transport system with that in mind.

“If this study by a dozen academics at two of the country’s leading transport research institutions proves accurate, there are fundamental implications for future transport provision. Will we really need more tracks, more trains and more roads if people are travelling less than before?”