Further doubts raised over HS2 statistics

Regular readers will know that I have always been, to put it mildly, rather sceptical of claims made for HS2. One of those, which I have often questioned, is the prediction that HS2 will improve the imbalance between the North and South, bringing growth to the regions it serves.

In the original prospectus for the line published in 2009, a graph purported to show that towns and cities more easily reached from London had a higher growth rate than those that did not. Consequently Torbay, Middlesbrough and Plymouth performed badly compared with Luton, Peterborough and Reading.

As I have mentioned previously, Professor John Tomaney has questioned this analysis ( RAIL 735), arguing that the benefits of better connection accrue to the stronger of the two towns, which of course would be London.

A supporter of HS2, reader Michael Bell, has now scored what he fully admits is an own goal. He has added further doubt to the analysis by showing that the towns selected for the graph were not selected randomly, but chosen to back the case for HS2, and that the graph was misleading by showing a trend line that did not reflect the data - that is, it was just randomly drawn.

He wrote to the Office of National Statistics for an assessment of the claim, and it seems they were not impressed. They told him: “Having looked at the material you shared with us, we would agree that there does appear to have been some selectivity in the choice of areas presented. We note that travel time to London is just one factor among many that might determine a region’s GVA [Gross Value Added], and that GVA is only one measure of income.”

Indeed, the paper itself admitted that there are many other factors that determine economic performance other than travel distance to London, such as the relative better performance of Swindon compared with Southend. Therefore, there is no certainty that improving journey times will result in faster growth.

Yet HS2, with its enormous budget, is still being sold as the solution to the North-South divide. My answer to this has always been: create a Network SouthEast for the North with fast, electric, modern trains linking all the northern cities on regular timetables. This could be achieved at a fraction of the cost of HS2, and would be hugely more beneficial.

It would be great if the mostly Labour Northern MPs got behind that concept, instead of failing to look behind the smokescreen that is HS2.