Rolling stock analysis
Almost 4,000 serviceable vehicles will be withdrawn when their lease ends within the next three years.
ALMOST 4,000 currently serviceable vehicles will be withdrawn when their lease ends within the next three years.
The Rail Delivery Group’s sixth annual Long Term Passenger Rolling Stock Strategy, published on March 22, indicates that a number of fleets will be withdrawn as new trains are delivered.
Some 2,400 vehicles due to be withdrawn are more than 30 years old, while 214 are Pacer vehicles. The future of these remains uncertain, although RDG predicts that some will be scrapped.
The report states that the number of new vehicles committed for delivery is 7,187. This equates to more than 50% of the current in-service fleet of 14,025 (of which 7,377 were built since privatisation).
These deals are worth £13 billion, and the number of vehicles in traffic as a result of these orders will rise by 6% next year and by 5%-13% by 2024.
RDG says the long-term outlook remains unchanged from previous studies, with an increase in the national fleet of between 40% (5,500 vehicles) and 85% (12,000 vehicles) forecast over the next 30 years. The mix of traction is uncertain, but by 2047 the number of vehicles in traffic could be as high as 25,969.
It is forecast that electric trains will rise from 72% of the overall fleet to 86%, despite electrification projects being cancelled in recent months. The report says that by 2047, a minimum of 10,600 new EMU or bi-mode coaches would be needed - of which 6,600 would
be the net increase, while 4,000 would replace British Rail-procured fleets (all of which would be at least 51 years old).
There is a recognition of a slower pace of growth in the very short term that could have an impact on upcoming franchise competitions.
In terms of fleet size increases, RDG points out that the 116% increase in passenger-miles in the 20 years between 1995-96 and 2015-16 was achieved despite the fleet growing by just 18%.
Angel Trains Chief Executive Malcolm Brown, who is co-chairman of the Rolling Stock Strategy Steering Group, said: “Increasing the national fleet through the provision of both new and freshly refurbished trains is vital to meet the demands of increasing numbers of passengers attracted to the rail network.
“The strategy shows that with government and the private sector working together, the industry can provide the modern, high-quality environment on reliable trains that is so vital to delivering passenger expectations.”
Rail Delivery Group Chief Executive Paul Plummer said: “The partnership railway’s long-term plan is not just to meet passenger demand, but to transform train journeys up and down the country.
“The Rolling Stock Strategy will enable rail companies to work together to deliver on their commitment of at least 6,400 extra services a week, better connecting communities and helping to boost local economies from Aberdeen all the way to Penzance.”