Dwindling passenger numbers.

Growth forecasts fail to materialise as passenger numbers decline

Traffic statistics have been released by the Office of Rail and Road for the final quarter of 2017, allowing a year- on-year comparison to be made with 2016.

It is grim reading, and confirms an earlier trend of falling passenger numbers that had been attributed to the effect of disruptive engineering work during the summer holiday period and the impact of industrial disputes at a number of train operating companies. There was the expectation of a bounce back, but this has been less than predicted.

The raw figures show that passenger numbers declined over the year by 1.1% to 1,733 million, equating to 19 million fewer users. This is at odds with Network Rail planning assumptions of 2.5% annual growth, replicated in the delivery plans of franchised operators who in some recent contract awards have forecast a growth rate of up to 5% per annum.

There was a 2.6% growth in revenue from ticket sales to reach £ 9,676 million, but this was below the 3.5% rate of inflation recorded at the end of 2017.

To drill down into the detail of the statistics, the market share of different rail products in 2017 was 4.2% for advance tickets (compared with 3.8% in 2016), 23.5% for ordinary anytime turn up and go products (22.3%), 33% for off-peak turn up and go fares (31.6%) and 37.6% (40.6%) for season tickets. The balance is for unclassified ticket issues.

The season ticket figure in isolation dropped by a startling 8.3%, producing a year- on-year revenue loss of £ 247m. It must be concluded that this is an outdated product that is in lower demand because of changing patterns of work, as well as continuing increases in fares linked to inflation. This is likely to price people off the railway, particularly as take-home pay continues to lag well behind price increases in the economy as a whole.

There continues to be lengthy closures for engineering and resignalling work, and the effect of this on the market perception of rail service availability is probably greater than realised.

It’s all very well saying that the work has to be carried out during holiday periods when travel numbers are lower, but this affects discretionary journeys disproportionately. I suspect that once an intended means of travel is ruled out, there will be people who judge that they cannot rely on the railway and take alternative transport next time.

It wouldn’t be so bad if substitute services offered a pleasant alternative, but there are too many reports of inadequate capacity on replacement bus services, which in any case are unsuited to the needs of many passengers.

The growth in demand for rail travel (which stood at 800 million journeys in 1996-97) is a reflection of much greater use of the network for leisure purposes. It is much more common to see family groups, children in pushchairs, and travellers with reduced mobility who find that alternative bus services are completely unsuitable. The message is (in effect) ‘we are closed’, which for a 24x7 business is unacceptable.

Some years ago, NR launched with great fanfare an initiative to retain some capacity for train operation during major engineering work. Equipment such as trestle wagons was purchased to carry point work that was pre-assembled. The objective seems to have been quietly forgotten.

The train operators have improved their use of diversionary routes, which although resulting in extended journey times is clearly preferred by passengers to the use of substitute bus services. However, it is hard to implement such plans when faced (for example) with a complete closure at Bristol Temple Meads for five days this Easter.

Trains terminated at Bath Spa, Bristol Parkway, and Weston-super-Mare, with a complete withdrawal of branch line services to Severn Beach. There has to be a better way of organising work of this type. It must be possible to keep part of the station open and adopt the 24x7 route availability that NR planned for in the past.

When it is considered that a formal alliance between NR and the Great Western Railway was created in March 2016, and a Western Route Supervisory Board in April 2017, you have to wonder how it is that such disruptive work can be authorised over the Easter period. It has to be concluded that there can’t be much idea about road network congestion and the use of the M5 motorway during holiday periods.

It can be noted that patronage of bus services has been in steady decline in the recent past, and the response from bus operators such as FirstGroup has been to introduce new vehicles with a high comfort specification for seating and the travel environment.

The railway appears to be moving in the opposite direction, with the introduction of new vehicles that offer worse standards in terms of passenger comfort. We have entered the era of the ‘ironing board’ seat as fitted to Class 700 and Class 387 trains. It is hard to find the right words to describe the difference in quality that has taken place, compared with the Class 365 and Class 165/166 rolling stock that is being displaced.

If the fall in passenger numbers becomes a continuing trend, rail operators will face the same challenge as the bus industry with a need to improve vehicle quality. The current mentality seems to be that in a growing market, such niceties as carpets can be dispensed with, and standing space substituted for seats.

Class 700 trains have recently entered service on Great Northern outer suburban services. The new pattern of services will feature through trains running between Peterborough and Horsham, but with no fewer than 29 stops on the journey.

Any pretence of offering a fast service to Gatwick Airport has been abandoned, and no services will serve Brighton as originally suggested, although the rolling stock at least has toilets - five are provided in a 12-car set, with occupancy shown on an on-board display throughout the train.

But the immediate impact of the interior can only be described as Spartan, and it is likely to receive a poor-quality rating by both longer-distance commuters and leisure market users.

“The message is (in effect) ‘we are closed’, which for a 24x7 business is unacceptable.”