Extra capacity can meet change in travel patterns

The recent academic report on travel by those aged 21 to 29 is a useful reminder of how rapid changes in travel patterns have overtaken the substantial rise in car use from the 1960s to the early 2000s ( Analysis, RAIL 846).

The rise of electronic communication and limited incomes for the 21-29 age group have clearly had an impact on the trips and distance travelled within Britain.

In this group, total distance travelled per head of population by all modes fell 13.4% between 2002 and 2012, with car driving down 24.6% and bus and rail growth comparatively low at 10.7% and 12.6%. Paul Clifton asks if we really need more rail tracks, more trains and more roads if people are travelling less than before.

Caution is required in deciding on the best pattern of future transport investment (and related fares and regulatory/pricing policies for transport as a whole), but this conclusion is over pessimistic for four main reasons:

The report omits air travel. Despite some adverse impact from the 2008 recession, international air travel is showing a strong return to growth. Taking this into account, total distance travelled by both younger and older age groups continues to rise - including both travel abroad by UK residents, and travel within Britain by visitors arriving mainly by air but using other modes during their stay.

As those of 21-29 move into higher age groups and gain some rise in their economic status, they will intensify the emerging pattern of higher rises in rail use and a reduction in car use in 30+ age groups.

Continuing population growth will give an impetus to total movement in Britain, but also a continuing shift away from car use and households with multiple cars.

With rail defined to include considerable and continuing growth in rail-based rapid transit in cities, as well as further cuts in trip times/fares and increased capacity relative to car usage and costs over greater distances, rail is poised for ongoing passenger growth between 2012 and the 2030s - probably between 2% and 3.5% a year in miles travelled by rail within Britain.

Problems of providing rail capacity are likely to be eased by commuting peaks becoming less intense, due to shifts, working from home and more flexible working patterns.

But extra rail capacity (rather than automated HGV convoys) is needed to accommodate rising freight and passenger use on some routes, and offering a better range of diversionary routes. Although some slackening in the rate of growth in air travel is becoming more likely, rail is well-placed to provide improved links to and from major airports.

Conclusion: as part of changing personal preferences and support for a more inclusive and lowcarbon economy, rail usage is likely to continue to grow, but the case for heavy spending on expanded road capacity is weaker.

Heavy spending on a totally new high-speed rail route may be moderated to facilitate rising spend on city transit and on the conventional rail network, with some new links and branches reopened. Tom Hart, Beith