Don’t wait for HS2

In his editorial ( 850), Richard Clinnick makes the point that it is right to bring HS2 into the equation for the Benefit:Cost Ratio for electrifying the Midland Main Line (MML). But some very important points need to be made:

HS2 is at least 15 years away, and a lot of benefit would be enjoyed from electrification in the meantime.

HS2 serves Toton, but does not serve either Nottingham or Derby. Toton is no substitute for trains serving Nottingham and Derby.

When HS2 is completed, journey times from both Nottingham and Derby to London on the MML could come down to 84 minutes, Journeys from these cities to and from London via Toton will take 85-100 minutes, depending on how good a connection is made at Toton, when a proper railway working allowance is made for interchange time.

The figures published by HS2 in 2012 for traffic transferred to HS2 from the MML (83% of Nottingham traffic, 76% of Derby traffic) are hopelessly inaccurate, due to HS2 journey times being based on technically unachievable interchange times at Toton. I have seen no evidence that technically accurate figures have been applied in the Benefit:Cost Ratio.

It simply is not prudent to ask if MML electrification is value for money unless the evidence is correct. And that I very much doubt.

Graham Nalty, Derby