Crossrail: Richard Clinnick says we need perspective.

More bad press for the railway, but it’s not a “disaster”

“For years we have been told almost relentlessly that Crossrail was ‘on time and on budget’.”

“Shambles” and “disaster” are two of the words I’ve seen used in relation to the announcement on August 31 that the planned introduction of trains in the central section of Crossrail would be delayed until autumn 2019.

The delay is neither a shambles nor a disaster, but it is embarrassing and yet another body blow for the railway in what has been (sadly) a desperate year for the industry.

For years we have been told almost relentlessly that Crossrail was “on time and on budget”. From the moment then-Transport Secretary Andrew Adonis cut the first ground in May 2009, to the first Tunnel Boring Machine (TBM) starting work, to the decision to award Bombardier the contract to build the trains in 2014, the scheme appears to have been leading the way in terms of how to build a new railway. Now, for the first time, questions need to be asked.

There had been rumours of a delay, but nothing had been confirmed. The latest Transport for London Board papers, showing the minutes from a meeting on July 25, stated that the project was 93% complete. And in its update ( RAIL 860), TfL stated: “The focus remains on the successful introduction of Elizabeth Line services in the Central Section, which remains on course to open as planned in December this year.”

That meeting was held the month after the first Class 345 Aventra ran, at slow speed, through the central section from Pudding Mill Lane to Westbourne Park. This momentous achievement was not announced by either Crossrail or TfL. Yet a few months earlier, in February, when the first ‘345’ entered a tunnel under its own power, Crossrail was quick to release pictures of the event. At that time, December was still ‘good to go’.

However, in late January, London Transport Commissioner Mike Brown had warned that testing of rolling stock software and delayed energisation of the section between Paddington and Abbey Wood meant the scheme was “facing increasing cost and schedule pressures”.

Delay to European Train Control System (ETCS) testing at the Old Dalby test track meant that the delivery of Phase 2 - when TfL Rail would run trains between Paddington main line station and Heathrow Airport, replacing the Heathrow Connect services - was not delivered as planned.

Four months later, and rather than brand new nine-car Aventras gliding in and out of the airport, TfL Rail is forced to use existing Heathrow Connect ‘360s’ while seven- car Aventras can only run to Hayes & Harlington. These trains need to be shorter due to infrastructure constraints.

Phase 1 was also late. Due in May 2017 (itself actually delayed from December 2016, following decisions made way back in the train procurement process), the first Aventra entered traffic in June after a series of problems. They didn’t enter peak-time service until several weeks later.

The budget has also crept up by around £ 0.5 billion. It was originally due to cost almost £16bn, but around £1bn was then shaved off the bill in a Government Comprehensive Spending Review in 2010, following an examination of the tunnelling strategy. This took the price tag down to £14.8bn, but it has now risen to £15.4bn. Crossrail has admitted to RAIL that due to the latest delay, it is unknown what the final cost will be.

However, amid all this negativity, we need to remember the reason for Crossrail in the first place. London’s transport system is bursting at the seams. More than ten million people live in the city. It will take 10% of London Underground’s annual 1.5 billion users and create fast, seamless journeys from the UK’s largest airport to the business powerhouse in the City. Direct journeys from Paddington to Canary Wharf will take 17 minutes. The Elizabeth Line (as it will be known) will bring an extra 1.5 million people into the capital, with more than 200 million expected to use it each year.

It is also incredibly complicated. As Christian Wolmar writes on pages 46-47, there are three signalling systems on the trains alone, designed to ensure maximum capacity.

Crossrail is Europe’s largest construction project. Probably its biggest achievement is that eight TBMs munched their way for 26 miles under London, creating tunnels that weave, duck and dive around and under various Tube and utilities tunnels (as well as the River Thames) without causing too much disruption.

During construction, national rail services have been able to continue running where the line integrates with the national network. And if it wasn’t for hoardings fencing off the work, it’s doubtful people would really notice the activity at Liverpool Street or Paddington, or at many of the central London locations.

As with most projects where there have been delays, the initial outcry tends to be forgotten as passengers settle down to use it. Edinburgh Trams was horribly late, but now welcomes record numbers of passengers.

Even so, this delay doesn’t help the railway in what has been a horrible year. The timetable fiasco (which actually only affected three of the train operating companies directly); the collapse of the Virgin Trains East Coast franchise; the latest fall-out over fares; cancellation of trains on the Windermere branch; the debate surrounding comfort on new trains; the decision to roll over December’s timetable for eight operators; ongoing industrial action on Northern and South Western Railway; a downturn in passenger numbers; legal challenges over the new Deep Tube stock; and now a possible delay to HS2 Phase 2b. There have been incessant negative headlines during what has been a difficult year for the railway.

Grandstanding by politicians on both sides continues, including Labour’s ‘Rail day’ on September 3 when claims were made regarding how the system will be better when nationalised. Big claims were made… but little detail revealed, which again doesn’t help the railway at a time when we need a united front.

And this is a massive shame, because so much good is happening. Record levels of investment in infrastructure and the introduction of fleets of new trains continues, while thousands of dedicated staff continue to give their very best every day to ensure the railway works seamlessly.

With the news that HS2 Phase 2b’s Hybrid Bill will be delayed a year, we can only hope that this is (as Government says) so that it can better understand how it will link into Northern Powerhouse Rail.

Right now, the rail industry needs a really good news story that will grab the nation’s attention. Crossrail slightly missed that target - we cannot afford for HS2 to miss this chance.

Nigel Harris is away.