Punctuality drop
Moving annual average Public Performance Measure falls by 1.2% in Q1 2018-19, with bad weather to blame.
PUNCTUALITY fell by 1.2 percentage points (pp) to a moving annual average (MAA) Public Performance Measure of 86.9% in the first quarter of 2018-19, according to figures released by the Office of Rail and Road on September 20.
The biggest drop was recorded by the long-distance sector, with a decline of 4.1pp to a MAA of 83.4%. The regional and Scotland sector also recorded a fall, of 2.9pp to 88.3%, but in London and the South East, punctuality improved by 0.4pp to 86.4%. The proportion of cancelled or significantly late trains (CaSL) rose in all sectors - by 1.9pp in longdistance to 6.6%, 1pp for regional and Scotland to 3.3%, and by 0.2% in London and the South East to 4.5%. The national MAA was 4.2%, a rise of 0.6pp.
Timetable problems affecting Northern after the May change contributed a fall of 1.2pp to the national punctuality statistics for the quarter, and a fall of 0.6pp to the national MAA (identical to the fall all other operators contributed). For the quarter alone, the combined punctuality of all other operators - including Govia Thameslink Railway (GTR), which was also heavily affected by timetable disruption - contributed a 2.5pp decrease.
In London and the South East, Great Western Railway recorded its lowest punctuality figures for the quarter - 82% - since 2004/05, with PPM failures attributed to fleet delays up by 64% year on year. South Western Railway also scored its lowest PPM MAA figure since 2004/05 of 83.9%, with failures attributed to track causes rising by 38% year on year. However, Chiltern Railways recorded an improvement in its first quarter PPM of 1.5pp, rising to 94.1%. Weather affected Southeastern badly, with a CaSL figure of 4.1%, the lowest since the ORR’s time series began in 1997/98. Failures attributed to bad weather increased by 287% year on year.
Northern recorded its lowest first quarter for the franchise and MAA figures since its records began in 2009/10 of 81% and 85.6% respectively, while East Midlands Trains’ first quarter figures were the lowest at 91.4% since 2008/09. In Scotland, weather affected reliability with failures attributed to severe weather rising by 347% year on year, contributing to its worst ever CaSL figure of 2.9%.
In the long-distance sector, London North Eastern Railway recorded the lowest first-quarter PPM figure of 75.3% since 200203 for the East Coast franchise, and other operators also recorded significant declines in punctuality and reliability.
Virgin West Coast scored its lowest PPM figure - 85% - since 2009-10, and CrossCountry’s punctuality of 84.9% was the lowest since 2005-06, with failures attributed to points and signals
failures up 50% year on year. TransPennine Express recorded its worst quarterly reliability for any quarter since 2009-10, with a CaSL figure of 11.3%.
However, within the results, there were improvements. Despite timetable problems, GTR recorded a 4.1pp increase in its PPM figure during the quarter, rising to 81%. Within that operator’s divisions, Thameslink punctuality increased by 9.2pp to 84.5% and Southern 3.7pp to 79.3%. Great Northern punctuality fell by 0.9pp to 80.1%.
Other operators recording quarterly improvements in punctuality were c2c (up 0.5pp to 95% and the best performing operator for the quarter), Southeastern (up 0.6pp to 87.7%), Chiltern (up 0.1pp to 93%) and Heathrow Express (also up 0.1pp) to 90.2%. The biggest falls in punctuality for the quarter were Hull Trains (down 7.7pp to 73.6% and the lowest punctuality of any operator), TransPennine Express (down 6.1pp to 82.7%) and Virgin Trains West Coast (down 5.7pp to 83.2%).
Reliability improved for Thameslink (down 2.6pp to a CaSL figure of 6.8%) and Southern (down 1.6% to 6.8% of trains cancelled or significantly late). Chiltern and Southeastern showed no change in their reliability, but all other operators were worse than a year previously.
Increases in fleet delays issues were blamed for falls in punctuality for Arriva Trains Wales, East Midlands Trains, Grand Central, Great Western Railway, Greater Anglia, Hull Trains, London North Eastern Railway, London Overground, Northern, TfL Rail and West Midlands Trains.
Caledonian Sleeper recorded a 5pp increase in its punctuality to 92.4% during the quarter, but the MAA remains 1.2pp lower than in 2017-18 at 87%. Reliability also improved for the operator, by 5.3pp to a CaSL figure of 5.3%.
PPM failures attributed to Network Rail fell from 27 to 16 in the quarter year on year, and CaSL failures attributed to fleet delays also fell, from 21 to nine compared with the year before.