North warns of economic hit from HS2 cancellation
CANCELLING HS2 could damage the potential to deliver an extra £1,008 billion for the North’s economy.
The Northern Powerhouse Independent Review states that the HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) schemes, using economic growth scenarios, point to a potential aggregate gross value added prize for the region of more than £1,000bn between 2035 and 2050. It adds that if transport investment unlocks just 10% of that prize, then £100bn would be delivered.
“To truly rebalance Britain, by building the Northern Powerhouse, we need substantially increased capacity on our rail network,” said Northern Powerhouse Partnership Director Henri Murison.
“The benefits of Northern Powerhouse Rail and HS2 together are greater than either scheme alone. Cancellation of either the eastern and/or western leg without a proven and credible alternative could leave us with no way to secure the economic competitiveness we need, which alongside productivity gains is a pre-requisite of rebalancing the British economy.”
The Independent Review, released on October 16, also warns that the North will not accept waiting until 2040 for HS2 to connect its cities to Birmingham, London, Newcastle and Edinburgh, and that parts of the new and upgraded network should be identified with work starting immediately.
The review reported that work could start on a series of upgrades - including the East Coast Main Line from York-Newcastle, and between Sheffield-Chesterfield/Goldthorpe. A York-Leeds upgrade and further elements of NPR that Network Rail can lead on should also be under way now, it said.
In order to deliver these plans, it’s recommended that HS2 North is established. This would be a special purpose vehicle (SPV) working with the private sector to integrate the new railways.
The Northern Powerhouse Partnership commissioned the review. In a statement, it said that further work is needed to establish the true benefits of the schemes for the northern economy. Because of that, Government is urged not to scrap all or part of HS2 until that economic analysis is complete.
Chris Oglesby, CEO of commercial property provider Bruntwood and member of the Northern Powerhouse Independent Review into HS2, said: “Our review panel proposes that the North and Midlands must take control of the nation’s high-speed network. HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail - a major priority of Boris Johnson and his government - are completely interlinked, and a joined-up approach is required to both and to the upgrades to existing lines. Only by delivering an integrated
high-speed network right across the North can a Northern Powerhouse vision be truly realised. Further delays and uncertainty are hugely damaging to the North and the country as a whole.”
Judith Blake, leader of Leeds City Council and West Yorkshire Combined Authority Transport lead, said: “HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail, integrated and with a new Bradford city centre stop, are vital to address the poor transport links between cities in the North and Midlands, which have acted as a significant break on our economies.
“There is not a binary choice between having a long-term investment programme for the existing rail network and the delivery of new infrastructure. Both are required if we are to have the modern reliable rail network the UK needs.”
Sir Howard Bernstein, former chief executive of Manchester City Council and member of the HS2 Northern Powerhouse Independent Panel Review into HS2, said: “Northern bodies and elected leaders have called for greater devolution of oversight over their rail networks - as part of our bold new view of structures, further discussions will need to take place between civic leaders and central government on democratic structures to ensure accountability.
“The North deserves better and will continue to campaign to ensure we secure a proper share of national resources and meet our ambitions, so that we achieve our full economic potential.”
Liverpool City Region Metro Mayor Steve Rotheram said: “This independent review of the evidence for HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail demonstrates once again its vital importance for boosting not just the economy of Liverpool City Region and the North, but the whole of the UK.
“Not only must the Government invest in both, I am calling - along with other Northern political and business leaders - for spades in the ground in the North at the same time as in the South. This would save a huge amount in construction costs, and bring the jobs and economic boost to the North years earlier than would otherwise be the case.”
HS2 North would be responsible for building stations across that part of the high-speed network, according to the Northern Powerhouse Independent Review.
If affordability becomes an issue, then Government needs to take a more open approach to unlocking investment that can directly access commercial returns, the review says.