Williams review will remain a thing of mystery

While the Oakervee report has seemingly been deliberately leaked by government sources, I understand the Williams review - commissioned as a result of the debacle on the network following the May 2018 timetable changes - will never see the light of day.

Instead, we will get a fully-fledged White Paper (which shows the Government’s intentions and is the basis of legislation) early in the New Year, although of course that might change if the Conservatives do not get back into power.

Further discussions within Whitehall may reduce its status to a Green Paper (which is the basis of consultation), but a White Paper was the preferred option at the time Parliament was dissolved.

The rationale behind not publishing the review is that it would lead to rows over the difference between Williams and the subsequent White Paper, and therefore (as widely expected) this will suggest the establishment of a national body that will be responsible for all aspects of rail policy development and strategy. However, the name has not yet been decided (Rail UK is not possible since it does not cover the whole of the UK). And its precise functions, notably its relationship with Network Rail, remain open for discussion.

There will be a new form of contract that will replace franchises, but it is difficult to see how this will resolve the perennial problem over risk transfer - if the private sector does not take the revenue risk, what is the point of contracting out, apart from avoiding the risk of industrial action?

Of course, if the Conservatives do not get their expected majority, then all bets are off. A Corbyn-led government would use the process to issue a very different kind of White Paper with renationalisation at the heart of it.

And, according to Mystic Wolmar, even if the Tories win Grant Shapps will be heading off to better things than Transport, so we will have our third Secretary of State within a year. Do note that Mystic, in this year’s predictions, had already said that Grayling would not be in office by the end of the year, so he got that one right.