Philip Haigh

Cross Country franchise.

Arriva’s Northern promised much… too much.

Now the operator of inter-regional, suburban and local services across northern England is facing an uncertain future. With Transport Secretary Grant Shapps pledging action, he faces a choice between letting the flawed franchise continue, switching to a ‘direct award’, or having his ‘operator of last resort’ take over (as happened with Virgin Trains East Coast).

It takes two to sign a deal. If Arriva was foolish in bidding so optimistically, so the Department for Transport was foolish for accepting it.

Buyer beware! Shapps’ decision will say much about how much responsibility DfT reckons it holds. A direct award will keep Arriva at Northern with a renegotiated deal. I suggest this would show DfT accepting some responsibility for the original contract.

Calling in the operator of last resort will show the DfT discarding Arriva and heaping all the blame on it.

Timing will also play a part. Should DfT wait until spring, it could well take over an operator that’s done all the work in getting rid of Pacers and introducing its new fleets. Thus politicians could claim to have solved the problems and take over just as the operator visibly begins its long climb back to punctual respectability (with all the same staff and managers because they transfer over). I’ll let you decide whether this ‘OLR’ option is excessively cynical.

What I think is clear is that simply changing the operation’s owner is not enough. If Northern is to improve, then it needs to be built on a timetable that the region’s tracks can support. This might mean cutting some services.

Doubtless these changes would form part of any direct award negotiations. I’d not be surprised if DfT took these ideas and implemented them under an OLR anyway.

Whatever happens, it’s vital for the region that services return to normal and passengers once more trust their trains.