What COVID-19 means for rail in a wider transport context

The rapidly developing disruption to transport is unprecedented in the lifetimes of anyone born in peacetime.

Everyone is rightly planning for the worst-case scenario. Across Europe, that worst-case scenario is already playing out.

First to fail, inevitably, are the airlines. For Flybe, which was already losing money at the rate of £2 million a day, Coronavirus was the last straw.

Flybe’s sudden demise meant Southampton Airport lost 90% of its passengers at a stroke. The airport has the shortest train-toplane walk of any airport, so it means the railway loses business, too.

The shutting down of international travel also hits the rail services at Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Manchester and many other airports.

Much more robust airlines, including British Airways, are now facing significant financial challenges.

And Swissport, the company which handles aircraft and baggage at many British airports, has already told all staff on zero hours contracts that they are no longer required. It has also announced that no seasonal staff will be recruited (it normally takes on 1,000 summer workers). Existing employees are being encouraged to take career breaks, unpaid leave or reduced hours.

Could the demise of debt-laden Flybe be a foretaste of what is to come for train operators? It had too many planes and too few passengers on too many routes, with fares forced low by competition from other modes. Bought for just 2p a share by its owners a year ago, they grew tired of bailing out its failing finances on a business model that proved unworkable.

Might the same soon be true of, for example, First MTR on South Western Railway?

A franchise that was turning in £100m annual profits only a handful of years ago is now losing more than £100m a year, a figure that the company says is unsustainable beyond this year. Now throw in an entirely unexpected collapse in passenger numbers and the unquantifiable impact of widespread employee sickness - not just among SWR staff, but also Network Rail signallers at Basingstoke and essential track teams who enable the trains to run at all.

If First MTR cannot rapidly reach a deal with the Department for Transport to provide financial first aid, it may just decide it cannot continue.

And that’s just one example. There are other train operators without bottomless pockets.

As soon as the Prime Minister advised people over the age of 70 not to board a cruise ship, that industry came to an emergency stop. Most ships will tie up up for at least the next two months.

Southampton is the busiest cruise port in northern Europe,

and its busy season kicks off in late March. Cunard has halted three world cruises. P&O Cruises has five ships heading home early, with all following trips on hold. Three naming ceremonies for new ships are planned there in the near future, with 14 new ships booked for their maiden calls.

Southampton will lose perhaps several hundred thousand highspending passengers. Many of those arrive by rail, so the loss hits South Western Railway and CrossCountry as well. Each time a ship calls, it pumps £2m into the local economy. Taxi drivers who carry passengers from the station and the airport to the five cruise terminals talk of packing up. Cruising supports 65,000 jobs in the region.

Just along the dockside, Southampton’s container terminal is also affected. It is the UK’s leading port for Far East trade, but the number of ships leaving China fell by 50% in February.

It’s a six-week voyage from the Far East to Europe, so the impact is only now being felt. One container in three leaving the port goes by rail, so Freightliner will be hit too.

At Stonehenge, the car park is half empty. And the coach park is completely empty. Britain’s bestknown ancient monument brings in a quarter of English Heritage’s entire income. Overseas tourists, who make up the majority of its visitors, have almost vanished.

The double-decker tour bus that shuttles all day from Salisbury railway station looks empty.

In short, the travel and tourism industry is in a meltdown of unprecedented scale.

Rail is taking a little longer to feel the effects, because many people must still travel for work and season tickets are already paid for.

But even when only a handful of people had succumbed to the virus, the damage was clear. The 0730 from Basingstoke to Waterloo had empty seats last week, for the first time in years. There was plenty of space in the car park. Even commuters boarding at Woking could find room.

At this stage, there was a full complement of station staff, but that is unlikely to be the case for much longer.

The railway is planning for extensive staff sickness. If there aren’t enough drivers, fewer trains must be scheduled. But even then, they are unlikely to be full.

At this early stage, the people contracting Coronavirus show a marked concentration in the South East - at the time of writing, London has almost one in three of the total. Two in three rail journeys begin or end in London, and those who take the train to work may be expected to lead the way in swapping the office for a laptop on the kitchen table when possible.

Sporting and social events are already gone. If you’ve ever seen the tens of thousands of people heading to Twickenham for rugby internationals, or the crowds taking the train to football matches at Portsmouth’s Fratton Park, or the hordes of teenagers heading to Reading Festival, then you’ll know how much custom the railway is losing.

Such business is easily lost, and hard to win back.