HS2: east versus west

Recent letters have made the point that one reason for routeing HS2 via a West Coast alignment is that the North West has more than double the population of the

North East. However, it may not be quite that simple.

Manchester, at the heart of the North West, is already well within day-return timing of Euston, and rail has around 80% of the London market. HS2 may not have much impact on this situation.

Newcastle, however, has only around 55% of the London market, being 270 miles from King’s Cross (compared with Manchester’s 189 from Euston). This seems to indicate a lot more potential for traffic transfer to rail for Newcastle.

The same considerations apply to the potential between London and the Scottish Central Belt, where rail’s market share to London is currently less than 35%.

Added to this, an East Coast HS2 would be likely to be cheaper to build, given the easier topography and lesser population and development along a potential route.

The North West’s most pressing needs may not be for LGV speeds, but for other kinds of investments (resignalling, for example, to allow the Pendolinos to utilise their 140mph maximum).

At present, the post-virus needs for capacity enhancement is uncertain and probably needs reassessment.

David C Smith, Bletchley