Never waste a crisis

SHAMIT GAIGER: Director of Strategic Advisory, AECOM

It is too early to determine the pandemic’s lasting effects on rail, but crises allow us to make decisions, implement policies and accelerate reforms that are difficult in normal times.

Rail has faced deep-rooted challenges for some time now - as seen in the disintegration of recent franchises ( even before 2020), and the commissioning of the Williams Review.

Changes in consumer and travel behaviour, such as the increase in flexible working and the rise of Amazon, have been accelerated by COVID-19, which has also brought with it a new fear of public transport and a desire for an improved work/life balance.

Ultimately, it may be not only the speed but also the breadth of the change that has an impact. For example: the counter urbanisation trend may mean more hub and spoke-type journeys, potentially town to town and more dispersed.

We also know that future customers are more connected, asset-light, values-driven and more impatient. For generation alpha [those born since 2010], nothing trumps experience. To remain relevant, rail needs to account for these changes and consider how we design our system to fit with future consumer needs and travel behaviour.

The crisis brings the opportunity to drive that change. We should ask ourselves: what is rail’s brand? What values does it stand for? What is our approach to data, to partnering with other modes? What do we bring to the nation, and how is that changing?

Rail reform was happening anyway, but in the current situation offers a chance to be more radical, to establish a proposal that is fit for the next 20 years.

With passenger numbers down 70%, we are undoubtedly in a crisis. Let’s not waste it.