Fewer trains equate to rise in punctuality levels

Passenger train performance remains high compared with pre-COVID figures, although punctuality in the third quarter of 2020-21 (Q3 2020-21) was down on the two previous quarters.

Figures released by the Office of Rail and Road on February

18, covering the period October 1-December 31 2020, revealed there were 1.7 million trains planned (11% fewer than the corresponding quarter in 2019). Of these, 74.7% arrived on time (early or less than one minute after the scheduled arrival time - up

15.4 percentage points from Q3 2019-20).

By comparison, 79.3% of trains had arrived on time in Q2 2020-21 (from 1.6 million planned trains), and 86.4% of trains had arrived on time in Q1 (from 1.2 million planned trains).

The pandemic is the reason for the reduction in the number of planned trains, with operators introducing revised timetables to meet the needs of key workers while much of the population is instructed to remain at home.

Passenger usage fell during the year, with an average of 12% of pre-pandemic numbers travelling by the end of December.

ORR stated that of the 1.7 million planned trains, 2.4% were cancelled (a 1.7pp decrease). Of the cancellations, 44.6% were attributable to operators, while Network Rail was responsible for 30.2% due to infrastructure and network management issues. A further 21.2% were caused by external incidents such as weather or trespassing, while 4.0% was external operator incidents such as passengers being taken ill.

TransPennine Express experienced the largest decrease in cancellations (down 10.5pp), followed by West Midlands Trains (down 5.0pp) and Northern Trains (down 4.2pp). Merseyrail and TfL Rail both recorded the highest increase in cancellations (up 0.6pp), followed by Chiltern Railways (up 0.3pp) and East Midlands Railway (up 0.2pp).

Punctuality across all 23 operators improved compared with the previous year, although that is mitigated by there being fewer trains.

Nevertheless, Public Performance Measure (PPM) was at its highest Q3 percentage since the time series began in 1997-98, with 91.8% of trains arriving within five or ten minutes of their destination (there are different measures for different sectors, with long-distance afforded more leeway than commuter services). This was a 9.5pp improvement compared with the corresponding quarter in 2019.

LNER recorded the largest punctuality increase (up 36.4pp), followed by TransPennine Express (up 32.1pp) and Transport for Wales (up 24.4pp).

The latest figures also revealed that throughout the whole of 2020, some 75.6% of recorded station stops in Great Britain (52.6 million out of 69.6 million) were arrived at On Time.