Local restrictions curb rise in passenger numbers in final quarter of 2020

Some 140 million passenger journeys were made between October 1 and December 31 2020 (Q3, 2020-21), according to figures released by the Office of Rail and Road on March 11.

That equates to just 30.2% of the 463 million journeys made in the corresponding three-month period 12 months earlier. And the regulator warns that the estimated usage could actually be overstated, owing to travel restrictions introduced during the period.

It said Department for Transport estimates at the start of October suggested that passenger usage was around 34% of the average pre-COVID figure. That fell to 23% in November, before rising again to around 33% in mid-December. However, by the end of December numbers travelling had dropped to 12%, according to DfT estimates.

ORR noted that during Q3 2020-21, local restrictions had been introduced in certain areas to combat COVID-19. Wales introduced a two-week firebreak in October, while a four-week lockdown was implemented in England during November. There were also tougher restrictions for travel in Scotland.

Nevertheless, the figures for Q3 2020-21’s were still higher than the previous quarter’s figure of 134 million journeys.

The London and South East sector recorded the most journeys (106 million, but still only 33.4% of those made in Q3 2019-20).

The Regional sector recorded 26.0 million journeys (24.0% of the journeys made in Q3 2019-20) and the Long-Distance sector recorded 8.2 million journeys (21.4%).

Overall passenger revenue for the quarter was £641 million, less than a quarter of the £2.7bn in Q3 2019-20. Franchised passenger revenue per kilometre was 15.5p, up from 15.4p the previous year.

Govia Thameslink Railway carried the most passengers in Q3 (26.68 million), while London Overground and TfL Rail reported the highest increase in usage as a proportion of the journeys made in Q3 201920 (42.4%).

The latter included an increase of passengers following the transfer of Great Western Railway stopping services to TfL Rail.

LNER recorded a relative usage (journeys in Q3 2020-21 as a percentage of journeys in Q3 2019-20) of 21.3%, the largest decrease of any operator and down 11.2 percentage points compared with the previous quarter. ORR suggested that engineering works may have contributed to this.

A total of 103 million franchised passenger journeys were made on non-season tickets during Q3 2020-21. This represented just over a third of the 306 million journeys made in October-December 2019, and was a 2.9pp decrease in relative usage compared with Q2 2020-21.

ORR Director of Planning and Performance Graham Richards said: “When passengers do slowly return in 2021, it is important that the rail industry maintains the good punctuality we’ve seen recently and provides clear and accurate information to help passengers plan and make journeys with confidence and ease.”