Is change of leader an opportunity lost after progress made by Tories?
LAST week, the Conservatives in Rossendale announced that interim local party leader Annabel Shipley was no longer leading the party, with the baton passing to long-serving Helmshore councillor Brian Essex.
Coun Essex becomes at least the fifth Conservative to hold the post of Tory leader to try and lead the party back to power since they lost control to Labour in 2011.
The decision to change leaders feels like an opportunity lost for the Conservatives, who it is possible to argue had made real progress under Coun Shipley since her appointment as interim leader.
The party made progress, if not as much as they would have liked, in the local elections, claiming an additional seat which had been Labour and also winning again in previous strongholds like Eden.
In the previous local elections in 2016, another seat in Eden – covering the Edenfield area – was taken by Labour from the Tories.
The party’s opposition of ruling Labour policies has also been much clearer and substantial in recent times, with firm commitments to re-open Haslingden pool, and having a much stronger view on what’s happening in Rawtenstall town centre.
Based on all of that, the local party must be wondering what it will take to actually win power next year.
In terms of seats, the party needs to win very few seats from Labour to now take power.
There are two answers here.
The first lies in turnout at the elections.
Take Goodshaw, where Rossendale council leader Alyson Barnes retained her seat by just 37 votes.
As Coun Barnes has pointed out, a win is a win, but for her Tory rival David Foxcroft to come so close to beating the sitting council leader was quite a surprise – not least for him, based on comments he made after the election.
Turnout went up from 38 per cent in the previous two Goodshaw elections to 46pc.
When you compare the split of votes in the 2016 local elections in Goodshaw to 2018, it’s clear to see that the Tories have benefited from the increase in turnout.
And that has to be the priority for the Tories – building up the vote for next May now.
It’s not as if they are short of things to oppose the council on – but maybe it’s not the borough-wide issues such as the Empty Homes Scandal, the redevelopment of Rawtenstall town centre and the emerging row over the sale of Rossendale Transport to Transdev which get people out of the front door.
Maybe the way to win power in Rossendale is take each town and village in turn and focus on their specific issues, and come up with solutions.
It is, to an extent, what Labour has done.
It points to the redevelopment of the town centre – controversial as it is – in Rawtenstall as great news for the town, along with the redevelopment of Ski Rossendale and the improvements at the Whitaker.
It then points to the regeneration work in Bacup as good news for the people of Bacup, the redevelopment of parks in villages as good news for those villages, and the proposed heritage lottery fund bid for Haslingden as an indication of commitment to Haslingden.
Coun Barnes points to toxic criticism and commentary on social media as a problem in the borough, and you certainly don’t have to go far to find very annoyed voices about the way the council is run.
But clearly, not enough annoyed voices to dislodge the ruling group.
While the Tories edged the popular vote this year, Labour did enough to get support out in the right places.
It’s that level of forensic thought the Tories need to apply to their work over the next 12 months.
Meaningful opposition is what Coun Shipley established at Futures Park once again, and that is surely something for the new opposition leadership to build on.