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thE Ex-EngLAnd tEn And wORLd-cLASS AnALySt
Here was the theory: the magnificent Rugby World Cup-winning New Zealand team of 2015 represented the defining moment in recent All Black history. The 2011 triumph on home soil, with Richie McCaw on one leg and Dan Carter on the sidelines, was a mere warm-up for the stupendous stuff they have since served up, with Twickenham 2015 the culmination.
It was a good theory. The day they beat Australia in the final was the day unarguably one of the world’s greatest captains and opensides hung up his boots. It was also the day the greatest outside-half of the professional era retired from the Test stage, his mission on a personal and collective level complete.
Outside him, the world’s most balanced centre pairing – Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith – broke up. And then there was Keven Mealamu retiring, the hooker who had been there or thereabouts with the All Blacks forever.
Test-match rugby is a matter of experience. It is a ‘fact’ drummed into us by international coaches (usually the ones with less experienced teams) the world over. Even the All Blacks could not possibly withstand such a staggering loss of experience in one fell swoop.
Yes, it is one hell of a theory and in the first halves of their opening two matches against Wales in the June Test series it looked like the theory had legs. It wasn’t that New Zealand were playing badly but they were playing too much. By ‘too much’ I mean risky rugby in the wrong part of the pitch.
When Dan Carter was in his pomp, the unfussy kick into the corner to build the pressure and take the heat off the All Blacks was a banker bet, as we saw to great effect in the World Cup semi-final when the slithering conditions at Twickenham played into the Springboks’ hands but New Zealand came through to win 20-18.
Against Wales, Kieran Read’s team ran from deep before they had established any rhythm, before they had Wales where they wanted them. They might be a beautiful team to watch in full flow but the winning knack comes from making good basic decisions. Until Wales began to puff in those opening Tests, New Zealand looked unconvincing tactically.
Alas for the rest of the world, the third Test down in Dunedin showed that Kiwis are quick learners and, despite bringing some fresh faces into the equation, they simply blew Wales away in a manner no other team on earth could contemplate. The theory of being both inexperienced and vulnerable appeared insanely optimistic on the part of their chasers, chasers who are a very long way behind right now.
Is it possible that this team will be even better than the 2015 side was by the time they face the British & Irish
Lions next year? The answer is yes, and to understand why we should focus on four names. At the very epicentre of their Test rugby is new captain Read, the smartest and most skilled forward on the planet, and Aaron Smith, undoubtedly the best scrum-half. In fact, he might just be the best player in the world.
We are so used to thinking McCaw and Carter (it was lazy thinking for a few years with neither the force of old on a regular basis) that we refused to see the umbilical link developing at eight and nine. The try against Wales in the second Test, when Read picked up from the base and popped a pass over the Welsh defender’s head to Smith, who transferred it through his hands for a scoring pass to Waisake Naholo, was pure poetry. Their decision-making was majestic, as was their capacity to pick up the pace of the game whenever they wished. We’ll come back to that aspect shortly.
First we must mention the third member of the quartet, Ben Smith. The full-back/wing has a glorious rugby brain and the All Blacks’ shape is maintained from the back as much as half-back in this team.
The foursome is completed by Beauden Barrett. The Hurricanes fly-half scored the breakaway try that sealed the 2015 triumph. It sort of summed him up. Coming off the bench he makes things happen. There is little doubt he’s the best impact substitute in world rugby, but given his chance to start against Wales in the third Test he carved the opposition into thinly sliced pieces.
He is the most frightening attacking ten around and, although his goalkicking is average, the All Blacks might just unleash him against a wobbling Wallaby team in this season’s Rugby Championship opener. A win in Australia and the All Blacks are halfway to the title.
Australia have it in them to shock the rugby world but only with the quality of their performance against New Zealand in that game in Sydney this month, surely not the result. Their travails against England need more than a quick fix of France-based talent. The Top 14 is light on Super Rugby’s speed but heavy on endurance.
In particular, it seems naive to think that Matt Giteau and Adam Ashley-Cooper can simply come back and wave their magic wands. The Wallabies were well beaten by the All Blacks with the pair in their team in last year’s World Cup final and where New Zealand
SCRUM-HALf AARON SMITH MIGHT jUST BE THE WORLd’S BEST PLAYER
rugby roars on, Australian rugby suffers from something approaching stagnation.
The comparison between the form of these countries’ Super Rugby franchises is glaring. Australian Super Rugby is struggling. The Brumbies and Waratahs have been playing a level below the blistering brilliance we have seen nearly all season from the New Zealand sides.
The tournament’s general rules are this: the New Zealand teams beat each other and nobody else does. The Brumbies – with Stephen Moore and David Pocock to the fore – thrashed the Hurricanes, last year’s runners-up, on the opening weekend and the following week the Lions from Johannesburg stunned the Chiefs. But those are exceptions to the rule and Kiwi dominance throughout this Super Rugby season is shown by the penultimate round: the aggregate score of the four New Zealand-Australia fixtures was 203-63.
The campaign has been marked by the speed of New Zealand rugby, which brings us back to Read and Smith’s ability to go through the gears. No other side playing the game can match them and this overdrive does for just about everyone. When the Brumbies beat the Hurricanes they played like an old-fashioned English team with a grim catch-and-drive lineout.
Yet Michael Cheika is intent on playing ‘the Australian way’. This implies a game with plenty of pace and entertainment. The competition for viewers with rugby league is one where the odds are stacked against the Wallabies. Their coach might be devising a game spectators can enjoy but Aussies don’t like losing any more than they like their union dull. He looks damned if he does or doesn’t in that opener against New Zealand.
Considering that Pocock will still be short of match fitness after being sidelined for most of June and July with a fractured eye socket, even the shrewd nature of their coach and the oozing threats that emanate from Israel Folau (who is expected to start at outside-centre), along with Michael Hooper’s explosive running, add up to no more than a team regathering themselves after the 3-0 Test series loss against England.
The toughest challenge to New Zealand should come from South Africa, but they too are shrouded in question marks. It is all well and good saying Ireland ‘should’ have won the series but they did not and for resilience alone South Africa deserve some praise. But it cannot be denied that Ireland were a long way from full strength and for the majority of this series the Irish team looked the likelier winners.
Joe Schmidt might have lost the series but he came out on top in the battle with new Springbok head coach Allister Coetzee. The former national assistant coach and Stormers boss fits the bill as someone who will manage the off-field political issues that come with the South Africa job, but the greater question is whether he has the capacity to galvanise his team.
The Lions have been playing a most un-South African style in Super Rugby, with quick rhythmic play in the manner of the Chiefs. A few of their players have been rewarded with a call to national colours but playing in a lower gear didn’t suit them; either that or the step up to Test rugby questions their potential at the highest level. I think the former is the more probable and if South Africa are going to beat the All Blacks, we will see a traditional Springbok style. If this is to be the case, Eben Etzebeth has to up his game greatly from the June series where Devin Toner and Iain Henderson were too prominent for South Africa’s liking.
Finally to Argentina. The Pumas were the surprise package in the World Cup; the Jaguares have been similarly surprising in their first year of Super Rugby – in a very different way. The South Americans have not achieved on the road what they did in England.
There are a few possible reasons for this. Anyone who thought these players could maintain the amazing emotional pitch we saw every time they pulled on their national jersey last autumn was a mile off the mark. Additionally, there has been a thoroughfare of fresh young talent coming through the Jaguares ranks.
Unlike the All Blacks, Argentina cannot simply transition from one generation to the next. Last year’s World Cup semi-final team took a long time to build. Considering their failure to put away an understrength French touring team in June, the odds suggest they could be back to the bottom of the pile after finishing third last year as the patient rebuilding work for 2019 goes on around the talent of fly-half Nicolás Sánchez.
This year’s Rugby Championship is about who will come second or third. New Zealand are not invincible but they are too consistently good to be anything but champions. Here’s my final table prediction: 1. New Zealand. 2. Australia. 3 South Africa. 4 Argentina.
AllIster cOetzee wIll MANAge tHe OFF-FIeld pOlItIcAl IssUes bUt cAN He gAlvANIse HIs teAM?I