Funding fear over lockdown census

LEADERS SAY THE CITY FIGURES ARE SKEWED

LEADERS of London’s councils have issued a warning that their funding is at risk because 100,000 central Londoners were not in the capital when the census was taken during the national lockdown in March last year.

Members of Central London Forward (CLF) – the partnership of the 12 central London local authorities – fear that the data on which council funding is based has been skewed because of the large numbers of people normally resident in the city who quit the city during the pandemic.

The cross-party group London Councils says that census data suggests London’s total population in March 2021 was almost 300,000 (3%) lower than the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) previous population projection for 2021, with some boroughs’ figures almost a quarter (24%) lower.

London Councils estimates around £4 billion of Government funding to London local authorities relies directly or indirectly on census population figures.

There will also be implications for billions of pounds of funding for the GLA, the NHS, police, fire and other much-needed frontline services.

Westminster City Council, on Tuesday June 28, launched Lost Londoners Count, a new cross-party campaign of the capital’s inner city local authorities calling for “fair funding” in light of newly released census data.

In Westminster alone it is estimated that around 30,000 residents – some 15% of the normal total population – may be missing from the official figures.

That could mean, depending on how the Government sets funding for each council, that Westminster gets £40 million less than it believes it needs to provide services for residents actually living in the city.

Authorities say this could hit street cleaning, refuse collection and community safety.

London Councils are also worried that the Covid-19 pandemic and national lockdown had a “major impact” on Census 2021 promotion work.

The usual word-of-mouth communications routes were unavailable and public advertising will have been less effective as people spent more time indoors.

Boroughs repeatedly expressed concern at Census 2021’s emphasis on people filling it in digitally, despite an estimated 270,000 Londoners being completely offline and two million having low levels of digital engagement.

Many resident EU Nationals also returned to their native countries during lockdowns – meaning that central government funding may be disproportionately affected.

Cllr David Boothroyd, Westminster City Council’s cabinet member for finance and council reform, said: “At a time of soaring inflation these lost Londoners really do matter, especially in the funding we get from the Government.

“The Office for National Statistics have agreed that the figures were taken at an unusual time and will be adjusting the Mid-Year Estimates (MYE) to take that into account.

“But there can be no escaping the fact that the information gathered by the census does not represent Westminster’s actual population and this will have long-term implications for Westminster and other inner-city local authorities.

Mr Boothroyd added: “We are engaging in field research to determine the number of properties that have been reoccupied since the census was taken and would welcome further work with ONS to determine the scale of the adjustment needed in the mid-year estimates.

“The Lost Londoners Count campaign aims to highlight the fact that the census may have been a snapshot in time, but it doesn’t bear any relation to the population of the city one year on or going forward.”

Central London Forward includes Conservative-run Kensington and Chelsea and Aspire-run Tower Hamlets, as well as Labour-led Camden, Islington, Haringey, Hackney, Wandsworth, Lambeth, Southwark and Lewisham – plus the City of London.

Cllr Elizabeth Campbell, chair of Central London Forward and leader of the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea, said: “This is not just a statistical exercise. London’s local authorities receive billions of pounds of funding every year from central government, with the amount we get based in large part on our population.

“The census took place in the middle of the coronavirus lockdown, at a time when London’s population had dipped temporarily, but substantially.

“London’s population is bouncing back again.

“We must ensure that these lost Londoners do not lead to lost funding for the capital, and further pressure on local authority budgets.”

Westminster City Hall