ELECTION NIGHT 2015

Shock exit polls predict Tory win with 316 seats

THE Conservatives looked set for power as voting closed last night, with shock exit polls suggesting they’d win 316 seats.

The same BBC figures predict 10 seats for the LibDems – giving David Cameron exactly what he needs to go back into No10. He could also do a deal with the DUP, making his position even more secure.

The predicted result would exceed the expectations of even the most optimistic Tories.

Senior party figures had earlier been trying out different scenarios for coalitions or minority government.

They had believed Mr Cameron could declare ‘victory’ if the Conservatives emerged as the largest party, particularly if the Tories also secured the most votes.

The figures showed he would need to win at least 285 seats to have a realistic chance of clinging to power.

At this level, Mr Cameron will assert his right to have the first go at assembling a Commons grouping that could pass a Queen’s speech and budget.

At the last election, the Conservatives won 307 seats, and the Lib Dems 57, making their coalition fairly obvious. But the Tory route to a deal is likely to be much more fraught with the polls showing a Lib Dem collapse.

Talks about a second coalition have already begun with the Lib Dems behind the scenes. But polls suggest the two parties may not have enough seats between them to govern alone.

If the Tories have as few as 285 seats they will almost certainly have to approach the Democratic Unionist Party, whose seats could prove critical. Even then, the three parties might struggle to scrape together a working majority

Any deal would also face close scrutiny from the MPs of each party. Lib Dem party rules mean that any coalition deal has to be put to a special conference of members.

Some senior figures, such as Charles Kennedy’s former parliamentary aide Andrew George, have already warned they would not support a deal with the Conservatives again.

In 2010, Tory MPs were presented with a fait accompli by Mr Cameron after the coalition deal had been struck. This time, the powerful 1922 Committee of backbench MPs is demanding proper consultation – and a vote – on the terms of any deal.

Several prominent right-wingers, including the Eurosceptic MP Peter Bone, have said they would rather try to run a minority government than do a second deal with the Lib Dems.

But the mood has softened in recent days as Tory hopes of getting close to an overall majority have faded.

One prominent Conservative said last night he was willing to ‘sup with the devil’ if it stopped Ed Miliband entering Number 10. Another said it was ‘unthinkable’ that the party would reject the chance of retaining power.

Some senior Tories are urging Mr Cameron to exercise his ‘squatter’s rights’ by remaining in Downing Street and presenting a Tory Queen’s speech on May 27, even if he is unable to cobble together a coalition.

They claim that even some Labour MPs may baulk at the prospect of forcing the Tories out if it would usher in a weak Ed Miliband administration held to ransom by the SNP.

Tory high command will also face demands for an inquest into the party’s lacklustre campaign, which many believe has failed to capitalise on Labour’s weaknesses.

Mr Cameron this week rejected claims it was too bland and negative – but admitted he had taken fewer risks than he did in 2010.

Speaking to reporters on his final campaign push on Wednesday, the Prime Minister savaged Labour’s ‘antiseptic’ campaign and insisted that his efforts had been ‘positive’.

‘I feel we’ve run a good campaign,’ he said. ‘We have focused on the things that matter – the choice of leadership, the importance of the economy, the centrality of the economy. Our manifesto was the most positive.’

Meanwhile, the Conservatives last night denied that software problems were hampering their efforts to get out the vote.

‘Willing to sup with the devil’