GROUP D WHAT WE NEED TO MAKE OUR EURO DREAMS COME TRUE

NOTHING pans out for Scotland unless Gordon Strachan’s men hold up their end of the bargain, of course. With all six Group D teams in action tonight, it’s inevitable to start looking at results elsewhere to go in our favour. At the moment, with everyone having played six games, we sit in third place, two points behind World Cup holders Germany and three adrift of surprise group leaders Poland — but two clear of potential challengers Republic of Ireland. If Scotland are to return to France 18 years on from our last appearance at a major finals then, although it’s not technically the only available route, the best bet remains gaining ground on the top two and finishing second. Or first. So, with the Poles and Germans meeting in Frankfurt about an hour after the final whistle in Tbilisi, just as the Irish start peppering Gibraltar’s goal on the Algarve, how do the best and worst-case scenarios break down? All of the following assume a Scotland win tonight.

GERMANY V POLAND

Germany win:

The Germans move on to 16 points, while the Poles stay on 14, now level with a Scotland side who have just won in Georgia. But the Poles are at home to Gibraltar on Monday, while we’ve got Germany at Hampden, so they could well be three clear again when they head to Glasgow next month. Even if we lose to the Germans, though, beating Poland at home — putting us all square with one round of fixtures left — would effectively guarantee us a spot in France. Why? Our last game is a certain three-pointer away to Gibraltar. Even if Poland were to win their last game at home to Republic of Ireland, they’d still only be level on points with Scotland. And, because of our earlier draw in Warsaw, UEFA’s head-to-head qualification rules would put us through.

A draw:

Germany move on to 14 points, level with Scotland, while Poland inch forward to 15. Assuming the Poles batter Gibraltar and get to 18, we’d need to take at least a point from the Germans to be within touching distance when the group leaders come calling next month. If Scotland don’t get anything from the visit of Germany, though, we’d need to beat Poland at Hampden and rely on favours from others.

Poland win:

Poland would be on 17 points, with the prospect of moving on to an unassailable 20 just by turning up at home to Gibraltar on Monday. Germany? They’d actually be a point behind Strachan’s brave boys when they turn up at Hampden on Monday. We would effectively be locked in a fight for second place with the World Cup holders. There would be no room for error. A draw with Germany would have to be followed by wins over Poland and, naturally, Gibraltar.

GIBRALTAR V REP OF IRE

Nothing that happens here, save perhaps a shock Gibraltar draw to finally finish off the Irish challenge, really matters. Only if Scotland don’t win in Georgia is there a chance of the Irish pipping us to third place — enough to guarantee a place in the play-offs.

THE THIRD WAY

Of all the teams finishing third in their groups, the one with the best record — discarding their results against the sixth-placed sides — would avoid the playoffs and go straight to France, collecting praise and plaudits along the way. We are in the mix for this consolation prize, whatever happens elsewhere in the group. But we’d still probably need to take nine points from the next 12 available.