Medics baffled by shock surge in winter deaths

HEALTH experts admit they are puzzled by a shock rise in the ‘extra’ number of people in Scotland who died last winter – the highest of the 21st century.

Statistics for 2014-15 reveal a 150 per cent rise in deaths on the previous year, in stark contrast to what has been a gradual decline since the year 2000.

The sheer scale of the abrupt increase in deaths – and the lack of any perceptible reason – has stunned the medical establishment.

In the four months between December 2014 and March this year, 22,011 Scots died from a variety of causes and conditions.

By studying the number of people who died in the preceding four months, experts calculate that the ‘extra’ number of deaths last winter was 4,060 – more than double the extra 1,600 deaths of the previous winter.

It is also the highest since the winter of 1999-2000, when 5,190 extra deaths were recorded.

The health authorities admit the weather was not responsible and neither was influenza.

The best guess appears to be it is a reflection of the country’s ageing, ailing population.

As Scotland’s Chief Medical Officer Dr Catherine Calderwood concedes she is struggling to find a reason for the increase, the Conservatives have said the figures should act as a ‘warning notice’ to the Scottish Government ahead of the coming winter.

Scottish Conservative health spokesman Jackson Carlaw said: ‘It is not clear why last year’s relatively milder winter should have seen so many deaths.

‘However, we need a clear signal of intention that the objective of ministers and Scotland’s NHS is to see last year’s depressing reality reversed.’

Last winter produced average weather conditions but even the effect of cold and rain is not believed to play a major part in seasonal deaths. Across the country, the figure within Greater Glasgow and Clyde Health Board trebled in only one year, from 300 winter deaths in 2013-14 to an astonishing 950 this year.

The 450 per cent jump in Tayside was statistically even higher, from 80 to 430 deaths. Dr Calderwood said: ‘Today’s figures show that last winter was a challenging one. Winter mortality figures can fluctuate from year to year, with this year’s figure coming after a year when winter deaths were particularly low.

‘It is reassuring that over a fiveyear period, the seasonal increase in mortality in winter is at its second lowest level ever since records began.’

Age Scotland has called for a major drive to rid Scotland of poorly insulated homes.

A spokesman said: ‘The poor condition of Scotland’s housing stock means much of the energy which older people use trying to stay warm will be lost, something many can ill-afford.

‘That is why a long-term approach to ridding Scotland of cold and draughty homes is critical if we are to ensure figures like these are consigned to the history books.

‘As it gets colder, we would encourage everyone to ensure that they are adequately prepared for winter this year and to check in with any older relatives, friends or neighbours.’

‘Depressing reality’